{"168089":{"id":"168089","parent":"167729","time":"1580124840","url":"http:\/\/newsnet.fr\/168089","source":"http:\/\/www.moonofalabama.org\/2020\/01\/the-coronavirus-no-need-to-panic.html#more","category":"documentaires","title":"The Coronavirus - No Need To Panic","catalog-images":"7\/\/5\/newsnet_168089_332221.jpg\/newsnet_168089_bff6c8.jpg\/newsnet_168089_10057f.jpg\/newsnet_168089_ce4e53.jpg\/newsnet_168089_215752.jpg\/newsnet_168089_abcbaf.jpg\/newsnet_168089_a51af2.jpg\/newsnet_168089_Jdf5EXo6I68.jpg","image":"http:\/\/newsnet.fr\/img\/newsnet_168089_215752.jpg","hub":"newsnet","url-explicit":"http:\/\/newsnet.fr\/art\/the-coronavirus-no-need-to-panic","admin":"newsnet","views":"419","priority":"2","length":"5007","lang":"en","content":"\u003Cp\u003EJanuary 25, 2020\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cimg style=\"max-width:100%\" src=\"http:\/\/newsnet.fr\/img\/newsnet_168089_332221.jpg\" \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Cb\u003EBring Out Your Dead\u003C\/b\u003E by \u003Cb\u003Ebeq\u003C\/b\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Ci\u003EI had a little bird,\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nIts name was Enza.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nI opened the window,\u003Cbr \/\u003E\nAnd in-flu-enza.\u003C\/i\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.stanford.edu\/group\/virus\/uda\"\u003EThe Influenza Pandemic of 1918\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe picture and the rhyme are from a fifteen year old \u003Ci\u003EMoon of Alabama\u003C\/i\u003E post headlined \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.moonofalabama.org\/2004\/11\/bring_out_your_.html\"\u003EBring Out Your Dead\u003C\/a\u003E. Beq's title for her picture is from a medieval Mounty Pyton \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/youtube.com\/watch?v=Jdf5EXo6I68\" target=\"_blank\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"philum ic-chain\"\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E sketch\u003C\/a\u003E (vid) around the 'black death'. We no longer have to fear the plague but every once a while a new virus catches up with humanity.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EChina is \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-asia-china-51249208\"\u003Estepping up efforts\u003C\/a\u003E to stop the spread of a the novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV:\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EChinese President Xi Jinping has held a special government meeting on the Lunar New Year public holiday to warn that the spread of a deadly new virus is \"accelerating\".\u003Cp\u003EThe country is facing a \"grave situation\" Mr Xi told senior officials, according to state television.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe coronavirus has killed at least 41 people and infected almost 1,300 since its discovery in the city of Wuhan.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003ETravel restrictions have already hit several affected cities.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EAnd from Sunday, private vehicles will be banned from the central districts of Wuhan, the source of the outbreak.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EAcross mainland China, travellers are having their temperatures checked for signs of fever, and train stations have been shut in several cities.\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EAn infected person transmits the virus to X healthy persons. In an epidemic the factor X is greater than 1. For the novel coronavirus the initial factor, also known as R0 or R naught, is 1.4-2.5 which is not especially high.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EFerris Jabr \u003Ca onclick=\"sj(this)\" data-j=\"popup_twit,call__3_@ferrisjabr_ban\" class=\"txtx\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"philum ic-tw\" style=\"font-size:16px;\"\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E - \u003Ca onclick=\"sj(this)\" data-j=\"popup_twit,call__3_https:\/\/twitter.com\/ferrisjabr\/status\/1220964068564946945_\" class=\"txtx\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"philum ic-tw\" style=\"font-size:16px;\"\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E 6:58 UTC \u00b7 Jan 25, 2020\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe basic reproduction number (R0) is the average number of secondary infections generated by one infected person in a totally susceptible population #2019nCoV\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe claim that \"we are now faced with the most virulent virus epidemic the world has ever seen\" and that the new coronavirus is 8x as infectious as SARS is completely untrue. Even if the R0 were 3.8 that would be nowhere near a record.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EHere is some context w\/ a range of R0s:\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cimg style=\"max-width:100%\" src=\"http:\/\/newsnet.fr\/img\/newsnet_168089_ce4e53.jpg\" \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca onclick=\"SaveBf('newsnet*168089*215752.jpg___');\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"philum ic-img\"\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E bigger\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EAs long as the R0 is over 1 the infection will spread further as each infected person will infect multiple healthy ones who again will infect others. To stop an epidemic R0 has to be brought to under 1. Key is to lower the number of healthy persons an infected person comes into contact with. In 2002-2003 the SARS epidemic started out with an R0 of about 3 and ended with an R0 of 0.4. This was achieved by isolating the sick and, as not all infected persons are immediately recognized, also by lowering the number of contacts people have in their daily life.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EChina is now rapidly doing both.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe fatality rate of the novel coronavirus is also no reason to panic.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EDr. Melvin Sanicas \u003Ca onclick=\"sj(this)\" data-j=\"popup_twit,call__3_@Vaccinologist_ban\" class=\"txtx\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"philum ic-tw\" style=\"font-size:16px;\"\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E - \u003Ca onclick=\"sj(this)\" data-j=\"popup_twit,call__3_https:\/\/twitter.com\/Vaccinologist\/status\/1220469109378502658_\" class=\"txtx\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"philum ic-tw\" style=\"font-size:16px;\"\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E 22:11 UTC \u00b7 Jan 23, 2020\u003C\/a\u003E\u003Cp\u003EPreliminary R0 (number showing how contagious \/ transmissible a pathogen is) for #Wuhan #nCoV2019 novel #coronavirus: 1.4-2.5. Here are the figures for other diseases #SARSvirus #MERS & their case-fatality rates to put things in perspective\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"philum ic-img2\"\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca onclick=\"SaveBf('newsnet*168089*a51af2.jpg___');\"\u003E\u003Cspan class=\"philum ic-img\"\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E bigger\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe current 4% case-fatality rate of the coronavirus (which still may increase) is also not especially high. The Spanish Flu pandemic, which \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/web.stanford.edu\/group\/virus\/uda\"\u003Ebegan in the U.S\u003C\/a\u003E., had a fatality rate of about 10%. It was unusual in that it killed mostly young adults. The novel coronavirus seems to be quite usual in that it mostly kills people who are already weakened by other circumstances. The infection is then often the 'last drop in the bucket' that kills a person who already had a medical condition.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EPeople fond of conspiracy theories will speculate that the coronoavirus was spread intentionally or escaped from some laboratory. The neo-conservatives in the U.S. have played with that idea.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cblockquote\u003EAdvanced forms of biological warfare that can \"target\" specific genotypes may transform biological warfare from the realm of terror to a politically useful tool.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\n\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/archive.org\/details\/RebuildingAmericasDefenses\/mode\/2up\"\u003E\"Rebuilding America's Defenses\" - The September 2000 PNAC Report\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/blockquote\u003E\u003Cp\u003EBut from a scientific perspective that makes little sense. There is no 'race gene' that could be used to safely discriminate between people of a certain heritage and others.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThe novel coronavirus is likely a variant of some animal virus that crossed over to a human host. This probably happens way more often than we recognize.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003EPosted by b on January 25, 2020 at 17:30 UTC | \u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.moonofalabama.org\/2020\/01\/the-coronavirus-no-need-to-panic.html\"\u003EPermalink\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Ca href=\"https:\/\/www.moonofalabama.org\/2020\/01\/the-coronavirus-no-need-to-panic.html#more\"\u003Emoonofalabama.org\u003C\/a\u003E]\u003C\/p\u003E"}}