Dear friends
It's day 10 of the Russian special operation and in this commentary I will try to sum up some of the most critical developments. So here we go:
First, the now obligatory map of the situation as of yesterday evening:
I won't comment much because either it is self-evident to you and my commentary is not needed, or this looks like an imminent Ukrainian victory over a "miscalculating Putin" to you, in which case no comments of mine are going to help either. So no more comments about the map for right now :-)
Next,
- According to am internal Ukrainian document which has been circulating on the Runet, apparently a leak from the Ukie security council, which admits 40% of the Ukrainian territory is under Russian control and over 75% of the Ukie military was destroyed. Considering the amount of fakes out there, I cannot vouch for the authenticity of this document, but I will notice that those two figures (40% territory and 75% of the military) are exactly what I have been estimating myself, especially the size of the remaining military (which is much more important than holding territory.
- Why are the Russian calling this a "special operation"? I would argue that this is a type of operation which has never been seen before. Ever. My friend Andrei Martyanov coined a very good term, he called it a "combined arms police operation". Let me explain "combined arms" is, in the Russian military terminology, the "the main form of combat of modern armies, in which the efforts of formations, units and units of various types of ground forces are combined and coordinated with the actions of other types of armed forces". This type of warfare can only be conducted by combined arms units and implies an operational-level dimension. In other words, a combined arms operation has nothing in common with a police operation, yet in this case Andrei Martyanov is right - what we are seeing here is a police operation whose aim is to disarm and apprehend/neutralize a criminal force which itself is so big that it is capable of operational-level warfare. Normally, police operations are always on the low end of tactical level sectrum (division, brigade, regiment, battalion, company, platoon) and rarely involve more than maybe a few APCs. This is clearly not the case today in the Ukraine where combat operations are clearly reaching operational and even strategic levels.
- What does that mean in practice? First and foremost, that the goal of the operation is to deny the enemy the use of all the technologies and infrastructure needed to operational level combat: communications, ammunition, petroleum, oil, lubricants, air support, reconnaissance and targeting, etc. etc. etc. Once that goal has been achieved, you cannot speak of a "Ukrainian armed forces" anymore, but only of specific subunits fighting at a tactical level. Again, the goal is not to kill a maximal number of Ukies or to flatten cities. The goal is to lower the level or combat operations the Ukies are capable of. This objective is been almost completely achieved. The key indicator of this success is that the Ukies are not capable of coordinated maneuver anymore. Even better (or worse, depending on whom you support), the Russian have total air superiority, which makes any movements very very dangerous (Russian fixed and rotary wing CAS operations include "free hunts" in free fire zones).
- What about the cities then? Cities provide a very desirable environment for defensive operations, especially if you are willing to have a lot of civilian casualties. In our case, not only are the Ukronazis willing, they have established an entire system to maximize causalities. In several cities the Ukies are holding the locals has human shields (remember that under the Bandera ideology, the eastern Ukrainians are "separs" which only deserve death anyway, so murdering them is a no-brainer). In some cases, the sides did agree to humanitarian corridors, but every city in which there is a hardcore Nazi deathsquad the civilians are banned from leaving nad even ordered in specific dorms, schools, building which are they used by the Ukronazis.
- Coming back to Martyanov's "combined arms police operation", please understand that this is not a "police operation" in the US sense of the word during the war against Korea where the USAF ran out of targets to bomb since they totally destroyed all of north Korea. In this case, the Russians are REALLY going out of their way to not only spare lives, but also spare the civilians infrastructure, and not only because the Russians do see the Ukrainians as they own people, but also because each building destroyed by Russia is one that Russia will have to pay for its reconstruction. So this is truly a very special operation in the sense that it is conducted on a scale and with methods previously unseen in human history.
- Now we need to look at PSYOPs again. I would argue that western PSYOPs were absolutely superb in their coordination and effectiveness. Oh sure, the Russians did expect some of it, but the scale I think must have stunned the Kremlin. And now, a week into this, the Russians are clearly fed up. The Russian just past a law foreseeing criminal charges against deliberately spreading fake news about the military. As a result, all these western PSYOP agencies are leaving Russia: ABC News, BBC, Bloomberg, CBC, CBS News, CNN and there will be more. Furthermore, both Twitter and Facebook are now blocked in Russia. As for the worst 5th column outlets inside Russia (Dozhd, Meduza) they are now also being shut down. Frankly, and considering how the West is blocking not only RT and Sputnik, but even entire domain names like.ru or.su, I think that it was high time to retaliate against western PSYOP outlets. Ditto for the way the US and other governments have taken action to silence even individual blogs and websites, I would say that better late then never.
- The current US PSYOP narrative about the Russians begin defeated and on full retreat will not survive this week-end, so it will now shift to "the Putin's Mordor Gulag is being extended over the suffering Ukraine". Furthermore, remember all the accusations of genocide against the Serbs in Bosnia, Croatia and Kosovo? This is what will happen to Russia next - a massive wave of accusations of atrocities and genocide. As somebody who had access to classified info during the war against the Serbian nation, I can attest that even if the facts on the ground unambiguously prove the opposite, the western PSYOPs and their presstitutes don't care one bit and, frankly, neither do those who voluntarily listen to, or read, the constant stream of vomit spewed by the so called "free and democratic press"
This is crucial: the Empire of Lies is lying, of course, but it also knows the true score. Which means that now that the West has lost the war in the Ukraine it needs two things: as many dead (on all sides) as possible and to make the most political capital possible from this war, which means that not only must it last as long as possible, but it has to "deliver" the biggest number of deaths, maimed and injured. Besides, that kind of stuff pushes all the correct "emotional buttons" and prevents the audience from using its analytical capabilities, however tiny these might be.
Any halfway competent military commander who would look at the map above would immediately see that the only rational decision at this point is for the Ukrainians to surrender: that map is really a no brainer. But since orders come from Uncle Shmuel and since Uncle Shmuel hates Steppe Niggers no less than Snow Niggers, Uncle Shmuel will now aim its immense resources at prolonging that war as long as possible and with as many casualties as possible.
On a more personal note, I have to say that being a Russian in the West is outright painful. I can only imagine what Jews must have felt in the 30s in Germany. The worst part is not to see the herds of passive infantile TV watching idiots being idiots, the worst and most heartbreaking is to see people you love and respect being totally conned and fully accepting the western PSYOPs narrative. In my case, it happened with close friends and even clergymen which really ought to know better (if you are Orthodox, then you are the spiritual heir to the Roman Empire, which means that you ought to know not only what Franks and Crusaders did in the past, but also realize the full continuity between them, the Franks and Crusaders of the past, and the modern Franks and Crusaders; apparently not all Orthodox Christians can connect these dots, what a shame, really!). Anyway, these are lonely days for me and my family. Then, in quick succession, I saw Roger Water's interview for RT yesterday, following by the following Israeli headlines:
- Roger Waters Latest Disgraceful Shilling for Russia
- Roger Waters Heaps Love on Russia and Assad In Latest Disgraceful Remarks
- Roger Waters' Hypocrisy on Full Display
In this interview with RT, Roger remembered the day he asked his friend Etienne what gave him courage and Etienne replied "Roger, maybe I am not alone?".
Well, Roger, if you read these lines, know that thanks to you, I feel that I am maybe not alone either. You gave me courage all my life, and your voice consoled me in my darkest times, and here, again, you are with me. Thank you Roger, I cannot put in words what that means to me!
Frankly, I was sure that the sheer size of the US PSYOP would affect Roger just as it affected even some of my Russian and Orthodox friends. And Roger is an artist, a composer, a poet and a musician, but he sure ain't not political science geek. And he might not get every detail of what is happening (he is way too busy, for one thing), but his heart guided him and that goes to show that what the West lacks today is not brains, though these are totally missing too, but simply a kind heart?
The French author Rablais (15th century) once wrote "science sans conscience n'est que ruine de l'âme" which means "science without conscience is but the ruin of the soul".
A fitting epitaph on the West's grave if you ask me.
And also a warning to Russia not to follow the West's shameful path into self-destruction: what would be the point of a military victory if Russia becomes just the latest iteration of a terminally westernized nation? How could Russia save the Ukraine if she can't even save herself spiritually? Even the best military on the planet won't save Russia if the souls and brains of young, and not so young, Russians are constantly polluted with materialism, lies, compromises with one's honor and, above all, crass, ugly and vulgar materialism?
The conscience of Russia used to be the Russian Orthodox Church. What we see today in Russia is the Moscow Patriarchate being a faithful and obedient mouthpiece for the Kremlin, which is all fine and dandy when a man like Putin sit in power, but the Moscow Patriarchate served Eltsin just as faithfully and if tomorrow, Putin is gone and some Eltsinoid manages to seize power, the Moscow Patriarchate will serve him.
The Church of Christ cannot be a sycophantic servant of the secular state AND the conscience of a nation. It is either one or the other. God willing, the events in the Ukraine will affect Russia in a profound spiritual way, just the way the LDNR serves to remind Russia what she is called to be. As a good priest friend told me yesterday, "Andrei, God can act even through the Sergianists". He is right, and that gave me courage at a time when I was feeling frankly desperate by the blindness of my fellow Orthodox Christians.
So yes, things in Russia are bad, especially spiritually, but I will not give up hope. Maybe a new Patriarch like Saint Germogen or a new Metropolitan of Moscow like Saint Philip II, will be granted to the Russia nation if we all repent for our sins, compromises, cowardice, and lack of faith (see page 105 here)? Yes, it does sound impossible today, especially when I look at "Patriarch Kirill" and his gang, but I chose to place my trust in the words of Christ Himself: "with men this is impossible; but with God all things are possible" (Matt 19:23-26).
My next update, unless something major happens, should be tomorrow. First, I need to spend some time with my family and, second, by tomorrow late evening (Moscow time) things should be much clearer (not that the outcome is in any doubt, really).
Kind regards
Andrei