October 4, 2025
Leaders of European countries with limited military ability are openly declaring their preparation for war with Russia. The Baltic states, Poland, Netherlands, France, Germany, and the UK speak if they look forward to a war that would utterly destroy them. It is a mystery as Russia poses no threat to them and wants nothing from them but a mutual security agreement.
I believe Putin himself has responsibility for this state of affairs. Putin's efforts to restrain the conflict in Ukraine have been misunderstood. Putin is perceived as irresolute and the Russian military as incapable. Trump calls Russia a paper tiger and speaks of Ukraine with sufficient European help transitioning from the defense to the offense and invading Russia.
This extremely dangerous way of thinking is the reason I have often said that Putin's never-ending, ever-widening war was a strategic blunder, a blunder that Putin continues to make.
With European politicians declaring their preparation for war, is Putin paying attention, or will he again be Putin-the-Unready as he was in South Ossetia in 2008, in Ukraine in 2014, in 2022 when Russia was forced to intervene in Donbas, and when the Russian strategic bomber force was attacked on June 1, 2025?
Putin's restraint and Lavrov's pleading for negotiations have convinced the West that Russia is an easy target. This mistaken conviction is fomenting a major war.
Russians do not seem to understand the situation. This morning on RT political analyst Nadezhda Romanenko attributes the Western war talk to "Western anxieties and domestic political calculations." It would be more realistic to attribute the war talk to setting up Russia as an aggressor that must be deterred. The Russians simply cannot comprehend that they are targeted as an obstacle to Western hegemony. Everywhere in the West the image that is maintained is Russian aggression. Wikipedia, for example, describes the 2008 Russian war with Georgia as Russian aggression, the 2022 intervention in Donbas as a Russian invasion of Ukraine. Estonia and Poland recently made claims of Russian entry into their air space. Every possible sign of Russian aggression is created. The West is uninterested in Putin's reassurances. Why is Russia unable to understand this?