Tim Kirby
The post-Trump quiet on the homefront is likely to be over, as it now may be time for a crumbling global empire to focus on Nation-Building at home where it is most viable, and for some, most desired.
The timing of historical events can give us context as to what the distant powers in the nation's capital are thinking. Despite it being discussed for around a year or so, arguably the grandest statue of Confederate General Robert E. Lee has been torn down in Richmond, Virginia. This coming right after the sloppy retreat from Kabul and Biden's soon-to-be historic speech about "Nation-Building" seems to almost be like a message that the fronts have shifted and now all the Soft Power muskets will be redirected inwards.
We cannot forget that the flawed concept of Nation-Building did not just come from out of nowhere. Directly after WWII, from an American perspective, the remaking of German and Japanese culture went flawlessly. Japan despite its completely different history and long periods of isolation has become vastly more Western in cultural, economic and strategic ways, than any of the Visegrad nations. These islands that attacked America for dominance of the Pacific have voluntarily and gleefully chosen never-ending vassalhood as their path with almost zero resistance. The same thing could be said of Germany (initially West Germany), their first, second and especially third Reichs were in direct contrast to the Anglo-American values that are at the core of politics in today's Berlin. Later on South Korea proved to be yet another nation building success.
Image: Japanese people protesting their nation having some level of military strength and autonomy. Cold War era Nation-Building seems to have worked.
This Marshall Plan, or Early Cold War era, proved to certain people in fancy suits that Nation-Building was a viable plan. It seemed to be a proven fact that a militarily occupied foreign land could be restructured into a mini America. And, it also seemed that this was in line with the subconscious will of the locals as the German and Japanese (temporarily barring East Germany) enemies quite readily jumped on the Democracy and Capitalism bandwagon. This is one of many reasons that all Liberals are sure that deep down, being freed from propaganda, their enemies would become Liberal too.
But then came the Russians. After losing the Cold War, Russia should have followed suit with Japan and Germany but it hasn't. Even during the humiliating Yeltsin period, the Russians wanted to be a Democratic teammate with America rather than the waterboy for them. But then again the smaller Russian Federation of today was never occupied militarily. Perhaps that is why Soft Power Nation-Building in Russia failed. But it is no excuse for Iraq and Afghanistan, which despite billions in investment (aka bribes) and untold human and material efforts, remain un-Americanized.
Joe Biden is even more of a human suit placeholder than his former boss Obama, but "his" message "rejecting nation-building but not our right to use force anywhere" as the Washington Post put it, sent a big signal from the elite that finally after decades this strategy has become considered non-viable. It would seem that at long last some have woken up to the fact that Germany and Japan were an exception and not the rule.
But beyond this, the core idea of this beaming beacon from the elite is that Soft Power aggression will continue, if not be ramped up to new levels to compensate. Biden said...
"And let me be clear: We will continue to support the Afghan people through diplomacy, international influence, and humanitarian aid. We'll continue to push for regional diplomacy and engagement to prevent violence and instability. We'll continue to speak out for basic rights of the Afghan people, especially women and girls, as we speak out for women and girls all around the globe. And I've been clear that human rights will be the center of our foreign policy.
But the way to do that is not through endless military deployments, but through diplomacy, economic tools, and rallying the rest of the world for support."
Just like in the early Cold War where it seemed that Nation-Building "just worked", now it probably seems equally obvious, that Soft Power tactics yield vastly more bang for the buck. The greatest thorn in the side of the Kremlin is the Ukrainian situation which cost a handful of billions to execute. The Maidan Revolution was cheap and effective unlike Afghanistan and the erosion of Russian culture via Hollywood/Social Media works out to be (from Washington's stand point) even cheaper. This is just one example, but it is a key one. We cannot forget that a certain type of Western elite adores depopulation and mass migration to force a "melting pot" lifestyle onto its allies. This is also highly effective without the need of the military and trillions of dollars to directly break any potential enemy including "allies".
Image: The era of respecting a defeated enemy for greater harmony is over.
And this is where we get back to the downing of Robert E. Lee's massive monument. This sends a very strong message that the race-baiting hysteria that happened during Trump is only just beginning. Washington has just freed up a lot of resources to focus more sharply on "diplomatic" efforts to get everyone in line. We are probably in for more witch-hunts for racists and the continued attacks on everything that used to be considered American, from the Founding Fathers to the Bill of Rights. If Afghanistan is some sort of "beginning of the end" for the Global Hegemon then that means that there will surely be problems in the continental 48 and anyone rising up to challenge them will have to be dealt with.
The post-Trump quiet on the homefront is likely to be over, as it now may be time for a crumbling global empire to focus on Nation-Building at home where it is most viable, and for some, most desired.