NEW - April 10, 2022
Especially for thinking people - regular readers of this channel - I will briefly outline the reasons for the monstrous war that unfolded before our eyes in Ukraine. There is nothing worse than a war between social groups of the same people. In this case, ours, the Russian people, which for centuries was formed on the territory of present-day Ukraine, which at one time, at the initiative of Lenin, included Malorossiya, Novorossiya and Carpatho-Russia.
I grew up in Zaporozhye, near which heavy fighting is now taking place in order to destroy the Ukrainian Nazis, who never existed in my small Motherland. I studied at a Ukrainian school and I know Ukrainian literature and language well, which from a scientific point of view is a dialect of Russian. I did not notice anything Russophobic in Ukrainian culture. In the 17 years of my life in Zaporozhye, I have never met a single Banderist. It was considered an offensive word and for its use in someone's address one could get it in the face. In a nightmare, it could not be dreamed that we would live to see the current state of fierce fighting between the armed forces of Russia and Ukraine.
Our President has said many times that Russians and Ukrainians are one nation. From the point of view of historical, linguistic, archaeological, ethnographic, genetic science, this is a proven fact. It was artificially divided after the collapse of the USSR. Within three decades after this, according to our President, the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century, pathological processes developed in the public consciousness of the Russian people of Ukraine, which led them to a serious, deadly disease - Russophobia. How could this happen?
Once again, I refer to my book "The Last World War: The United States Starts and Loses", published in 2016, in which the current state of affairs was accurately predicted. One of the chapters of this book, revealing the causes of American aggression, is called "Why Ukraine?". I recommend this book to everyone who wants to understand the tragic events that are taking place today. As well as the previous book "Ukrainian catastrophe", which was banned by American censorship in Ukraine. Below I will outline the main provisions of these works, based on an understanding of the long-term patterns of economic development.
As is said, there is nothing more practical than a good theory. The theory of long-term economic development that I have been developing for many years, revealing the patterns of periodic changes in technological and world economic structures, made it possible to foresee many unexpected dramatic events: the surge and fall in oil prices in the 2000s; the global financial crisis of 2008; the unleashing by Washington of a world hybrid war against China and Russia, including a trade war against China and an escalation of financial sanctions against Russia, up to the cultivation of a Russophobic-nazi regime in Ukraine and the current armed conflict.
Unfortunately, almost all the predictions made on the basis of my theory of long-term economic development have been fully confirmed. Unfortunately, because the tragic course of events that involved our country in a state of armed conflict with Ukraine could have been avoided if those in power had listened to these forecasts and implemented scientifically sound measures to block American aggression, which were repeatedly proposed by the author, including in the indicated publications. These measures have become even more relevant today. If the doctor gave a diagnosis and a prognosis for the development of the disease, which were fully confirmed, then it is logical to listen to the prescriptions and methods of treatment offered by him. Especially if the disease has already led to pathologies fraught with death.
Let's start with a brief summary of the theoretical foundations. We are currently experiencing a period of change in technological and world patterns, which is always accompanied by structural economic crises and world wars, respectively. The change in technological patterns begins with a multiple increase in energy prices, after which the economies of the leading countries of the world plunge into a state of prolonged depression, the exit from which occurs through a "storm of innovations" after the collapse of financial bubbles resulting from the flow of capital from obsolete industries to the financial market. During this period, military-political tensions escalate and the arms race spurs the economy to enter a new long wave of growth based on a new technological order. During this period, a window of opportunity opens for the economic breakthrough of new technological leaders, not burdened by tying up capital in obsolete industries. This period is currently ending with the post-COVID leap of China and India into the leaders of the world technical and economic development based on a new technological order, the core of which is a complex of nano-, bioengineering, information, digital, additive and cognitive technologies.
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At the same time, a transition is unfolding to a new world economic order, the core of which was also formed in Southeast Asia on the basis of a new convergent system for managing socio-economic development, combining centralised strategic planning and market competition, state control over financial and material infrastructure and private entrepreneurship, in which the state integrates the interests of various social groups around the common goal of increasing the people's well-being on the basis of rapid economic development. As always happened in such periods, the ruling elite of the core countries of the outgoing world economic order provokes a world war to maintain their global hegemony. In our case, the US financial and power elite is deploying a hybrid war with the aim of chaotising the countries it does not control, including the leaders of the new world economic and technological order.
Objectively, the main rivals of the US and the EU are China and India, whose development rates are many times higher and which form the core of a new world economic order, already producing and exporting more products. But the subjective ruling elite of the US and the EU seek to crush Russia, traditionally viewing it as their main geopolitical adversary. At the same time, they chose Ukraine as the direction of the main blow, again in accordance with their geopolitical ideas of past centuries. Here they clearly follow the precepts of Brzezinski, Hitler, Bismarck, as well as the Austrian and English crowns, who for two centuries have been trying to tear Ukraine away from Russia, tearing the Russian world into antagonistic parts with the aim of its subsequent annihilation in an internecine war. But, today, trying to inflict maximum damage on us in order to maintain their global hegemony, they are significantly strengthening the position of China, in favour of which the exploitation of Russian natural resources and the EAEU market are shifting. This catastrophic for Ukraine geopolitical mistake of Western leaders sharply accelerates the change of world economic structures and the rise of Southeast Asia in relation to the North Atlantic alliance.
Due to the objective laws of the change in world economic structures, the United States will lose the world hybrid war unleashed by them. In a fit of Russophobia, they have already played their ace of trump against Russia - the issue of world currency. After the "hellish sanctions" imposed against Russia, with the arrest of all Russian assets in dollars, euros, pounds and yens, these currencies automatically lost their status as world reserve currencies. The rest of the countries are faced with an urgent need to create a new monetary and financial system independent of them. Russia could take the lead in this process, if not for the dominance of American agents of influence in the banking and financial sector.
The book "The Last World War", published 6 years ago, substantiated the need to create a broad anti-war coalition based on:
- refusal to use the dollar as a world currency;
- introduction of an embargo on the import of computer equipment and the use of information and communication technologies of countries that refuse to conclude a world convention against cyberterrorism (primarily the United States);
- the imposition of sanctions against countries that violate the international convention on the prohibition of the development and use of biological weapons (it is now obvious that this is also the United States).
If 6 years ago the leaders of the SCO and BRICS countries, objectively interested in preventing the global hybrid war unleashed by the United States, would have started implementing these proposals, then today American aggression would have stalled. If the proposals justified by the author in 2014 to protect not only Crimea, but also the other nine regions of the South and East of Ukraine from the American Russophobic puppets who seized power in Kiev, would have been implemented, then no military operation would be required. The population of these regions turned to us with a call to protect them from the Nazis raised by the US intelligence agencies.
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During the 8 years of occupation by American and British intelligence services, the public consciousness of the Ukrainian population was reformatted, and the younger generation was raised in a Russophobic spirit. American geopolitics left the Russian leadership no other choice but to launch a special military operation to prevent the mass extermination of Russian people in Donbass. The correct goals of the denazification and demilitarisation of Ukraine were declared. The problem, however, is that this is exactly what the enemy expected from us, driving us into a corner with the forces of the Ukrainian nazis they raised. As soon as we started to destroy them, we were hit by pre-prepared information resources and monetary and financial sanctions.
It is very important to understand that the initiative on the main fronts of the global hybrid war - informational-cognitive and monetary-financial - belongs entirely to the enemy, and the war is going according to his scenario planned in advance. These sanctions would have followed in any case - if we had not launched a special military operation ourselves, then we would have been forced into it by an attack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on Donbass in much worse conditions. But we found ourselves in a trap set by the American and British intelligence services, which flooded the world media with a stream of mass murders of Ukrainian citizens organised under their leadership by the Ukrainian military, attributed to the Russian army. In this way, they are winning the battle for world public opinion against us, and they have also taken away more than a trillion Russian assets located in their jurisdiction. This, too, could have been avoided if our monetary authorities had followed the recommendations justified in the above book.
However, despite the defeat on the information and cognitive front and heavy losses on the monetary and financial front, Russia has significantly strengthened on the domestic front. Firstly, the influence of the fifth column of American agents of influence has sharply weakened; Although the comprador oligarchy, in an effort to keep the savings exported from Russia, jumps out of their pants to prove their loyalty to Washington and London, they are seen there as a spent card. Many foreign agents of influence, who daily poisoned the public consciousness in the media, simply fled. Secondly, as a result of the imposed sanctions, the budget rule was automatically canceled, according to which the oil and gas revenues of the budget were invested in the obligations of the NATO countries. Now these hundreds of billions of rubles are placed at the disposal of the government and can be spent on constructive purposes. Thirdly, with its sanctions, the enemy actually stopped the export of capital from Russia, which creates financial opportunities for doubling investments in the development of its own economy. Fourth, freed from manipulation by American speculators, the ruble has strengthened significantly even without foreign exchange reserves. And due to the ban on transactions in dollars and euros, it becomes a regional reserve currency. Fifth, the voluntary withdrawal of Western companies from the Russian market opens up previously unthinkable opportunities for import substitution.
If we correctly take advantage of all these positive results of American aggression for Russia, then instead of the planned drop in economic activity by 10% of GDP this year, we can get 10% of its growth. But for this it is necessary to rebuild the entire system of managing the development of the Russian economy on the basis of the principles of the new world economic order. Including monetary policy should become a part of strategic planning, just as the banking system should work to invest in achieving the goals of socio-economic development planned by the state.
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In the heat of the anti-Russian sanctions, the United States strongly set up, discrediting not only the dollar and undermining confidence in the world monetary and financial system based on it, but also giving us the opportunity to provide irrefutable evidence of violations of the international convention on the prohibition of biological weapons, as well as the total falsity of their information policy. If it is really impossible to deceive the whole world all the time, then soon the US leadership will be exposed in violations of the fundamental norms of international security, the total lies of their statements and international position, and, ultimately, in crimes against humanity. This should be the focus of our foreign policy. The apparent solidity of the NATO bloc can be undermined by our active consistent policy in this direction. The conditions are also ripe for the formation of a broad anti-war coalition around the above areas: international conventions on biological and cybersecurity.
In other words, there are good opportunities for our counteroffensive in the global hybrid war. On its main fronts, the enemy has used up his main forces and is no longer able to inflict damage on us. After the arrest of all Russian assets under its jurisdiction, we have no other choice but to create our own sovereign monetary and financial system capable of multiplying investment and innovation activity in our economy. After fabricating streams of obvious fake news about war crimes in Ukraine, a limit has been reached, after which the public consciousness begins to clear up and gradually understand that these crimes were committed by the Ukrainian military under the guidance of American and British curators. After the blocking of Russia's foreign economic relations with the EU, economic crisis processes are intensifying in the latter, which will soon be supplemented by social problems due to the inevitable new wave of hungry refugees from Africa.
The Western world today is on the verge of a catastrophe, which came very close due to the anti-Russian sanctions that were suicidal for Europe and the war unleashed by the British and American intelligence services in Ukraine. We just need to endure; not succumb to the sanctions, because they will not be stopped; not leave the liberated territories of the Russian world in Ukraine, because Russian people live there, whose support we really need; not negotiate with American puppets, because they will surely deceive again; not be fooled by offers to step back in exchange for an asset unfreeze because it's against the law and these decisions need to be challenged; not return dollars, euros and pounds to our economy, because this will lead to the resumption of the export of capital.
And quickly build a modern economic development management system based on the new world economic order, which has proven itself brilliantly in China, India and other countries. Create coalitions with them for the speedy formation of a new world monetary, financial, trade and economic system independent of the United States and its satellites. How to do this is described in my books. In order not to search, I will again refer to the books "Jump into the Future" and "Management of Economic Development", where, based on the fundamental theory of long-term economic development, proposals are substantiated for the transition to a policy of advanced development of our economy based on a new technological order through the creation of institutions of a new world economic order.
My theory of long-term economic development as a process of changing technological and world economic structures works. The forecasts developed on its basis come true, and the proposed measures bring tangible benefits. I would very much like the readers of our channel, among whom there are probably young specialists in the field of management, to take it into service.
Sergey Glazyev