October 18, 2025
Gilbert Doctorow and I share the belief that unless Putin responds more firmly than he has been inclined to do to the West's provocations, war is inevitable.
Hungary, led by the only intelligent leader in Europe, has arranged a meeting in Budapest between Trump and Putin. I suspect that this is the last chance to avoid war. Its success turns on whether Trump can abandon his bully role, understand that the solution requires a NATO pullback from Russia's borders and a mutual security agreement between Russia and the West, and declare in a press conference that Washington's support (incitement really) of Ukraine is at an end.
For Putin, I suspect the meeting in Hungary is Putin's last test of Trump. If Trump fails the test, chances are high that delivery of Tomahawks to Ukraine will result in a Russian declaration of war against Ukraine and quick destruction by conventional means of Ukraine's ability to continue the conflict. Putin will have reversed his strategy of non-response to provocations and put the West on notice, something he should have done years ago. The likelihood is the Russian Foreign Ministry's effort to dismiss the Tomahawk threat as terrorism rather than an act of war will fail.
Unless Trump comes to his senses, a brutal demonstration of Russian force is all that can stop the momentum toward a real war. See this and this.
