By Andrew Korybko
Andrew Korybko's Newsletter
March 14, 2023
The global systemic transition's impending evolution towards tri-multipolarity could see the US-led West's Golden Billion, the Sino-Russo Entente, and the de facto Indian-led Global South becoming the most prominent poles in International Relations, below which would be rising powers and regional groups. All actors would balance one another by multi-aligning within and between their respective levels, which might result in stabilizing global affairs much more than the prior unipolar and bi-multipolar orders did.
International Relations are hurtling towards tripolarity at an astounding pace as a result of the dramatic events that unfolded over the past year and especially the last month. Those readers who haven't closely been following this megatrend might be taken aback by this assessment, hence the need for them to review the following analyses that'll place everything into its appropriate context. After listing them, they'll then be summarized for convenience before explaining what might soon come next:
Background Briefings
* 7 October 2021: " Towards Bi-Multipolarity"
* 16 December 2021: " The Neo-NAM: From Vision To Reality"
* 15 March 2022: " Why Did The U.S. Prioritize Containing Russia Over China?"
* 26 March 2022: " Russia Is Waging an Existential Struggle in Defense of Its Independence & Sovereignty"
* 22 May 2022: " Russia, Iran, And India Are Creating A Third Pole Of Influence In International Relations"
* 6 June 2022: " India Is The Irreplaceable Balancing Force In The Global Systemic Transition"
* 20 June 2022: " Towards Dual-Tripolarity: An Indian Grand Strategy For The Age Of Complexity"
* 5 August 2022: " The Russian Foreign Ministry Comprehensively Explained The Global Systemic Transition"
* 1 October 2022: " The Ukrainian Conflict Might Have Already Derailed China's Superpower Trajectory"
* 29 October 2022: " The Importance Of Properly Framing The New Cold War"
* 19 November 2022: " Analyzing The US-Chinese-Russian-Indian Interplay In The Global Systemic Transition"
* 29 November 2022: " The Evolution Of Key Players' Perceptions Across The Course Of The Ukrainian Conflict"
* 14 December 2022: " India's Principled Neutrality Reaps Grand Strategic Dividends"
* 28 December 2022: " The Five Ways That The US Successfully Reasserted Its Hegemony Over Europe In 2022"
* 1 January 2023: " The New York Times Tried To Throw Shade On India's Global Rise"
* 7 January 2023: " India's Global South Summit Is The Most Important Multilateral Event In Decades"
* 11 January 2023: " Exposing Western Media's Narrative Agenda In Spinning The Sino-American New Détente"
* 4 February 2023: " The Chinese Balloon Incident Could Decisively Shift China's & The US' 'Deep State' Dynamics"
* 14 February 2023: " NATO's Self-Declared 'Race Of Logistics' Confirms The Bloc's Military-Industrial Crisis"
* 26 February 2023: " China Compellingly Appears To Be Recalibrating Its Approach To The NATO-Russian Proxy War"
* 28 February 2023: " Just How Drastically Would The World Change If China Armed Russia?"
* 1 March 2023: " Global Fora Like The UN & G20 Are Gradually Losing Their Importance"
* 1 March 2023: " Germany Is Lying: Chinese Arms Shipments To Russia Wouldn't Violate International Law"
The "New Détente"
To oversimplify the confluence of these complex trends, the US prioritized containing Russia in order to facilitate its containment of China, ergo the latest phase of the Ukrainian Conflict that it provoked via Moscow's ongoing special operation there. Throughout the course of the NATO-Russian proxy war that followed, the US successfully reasserted its unipolar hegemony over the EU while destabilizing the globalized system upon which China's grand strategy depends, thus giving it an edge over Beijing.
This in turn prompted President Xi to initiate an attempted "New Détente" during mid-November's G20 Summit in Bali, during which time he hoped that China and the US could eventually reach a series of mutual compromises aimed at establishing a "new normal" in their ties. The purpose behind doing so was to delay the end of the bi-multipolar world order within which these two superpowers exerted the most influence over International Relations, which was challenged by India's rise over the past year.
India's Game-Changing Influence
That South Asian state became a globally significant Great Power during this time as a result of its masterful balancing act between the US-led West's Golden Billion and the jointly BRICS- & SCO-led Global South of which it's a part. Its kingmaker role in the New Cold War between them over the direction of the global systemic transition enabled the rest of the Global South to rise in India's wake, thus revolutionizing International Relations by accelerating the emergence of tri-multipolarity.
The aforementioned sequence of events imbued the Sino-American "New Détente" with a sense of urgency since both superpowers had self-interested reasons for regaining joint control of these processes, though their attempted rapprochement was unexpectedly derailed by the balloon incident. The resultantly renewed influence of hardline factions over policymaking that occurred in the aftermath of that incident abruptly ended their incipient talks and placed them on the trajectory of intense rivalry.