Raphael Machado
All attempts at intervention or international intimidation by Trump have resulted in the consolidation of the affected countries' governments, Raphael Machado writes.
As we mentioned in previous articles, federal congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, traveled to the US with the purpose of organizing an anti-Brazilian lobby in that country. The main objective should be seen as reinstating Jair Bolsonaro to power in Brazil, and Bolsonaro supporters believe they can achieve this through Trump.
Regarding the tactical means by which they intend to achieve this, Bolsonaro supporters have organized several narratives and minor objectives, all aimed at facilitating Bolsonaro's return or making it inevitable.
One focus is the issue of "censorship of Big Tech." According to this narrative, in his duties at the Supreme Federal Court, Justice Alexandre de Moraes allegedly attempted to censor social media accounts of individuals located in the US - therefore, outside his territorial jurisdiction.
Beyond that, there is the issue of the legal case against Jair Bolsonaro for "attempted coup d'état," due to the unrest that occurred between late 2022 and early 2023. Everything points to a certain conviction of Jair Bolsonaro, especially because - according to sources - the Supreme Court justices are in a vengeful mood, particularly due to the invasion of their building during the January 8, 2023 protests.
There is also a broader theme regarding controversies between Brazil and the US According to some Bolsonaro supporters' narratives, the de-dollarization project promoted by BRICS and occasionally mentioned by Lula would be causing discomfort in Washington. The narrative is curious since, as everyone knows, Brazil has been one of the "weak links" in BRICS due to Lula's ambiguity regarding a series of important issues, both within BRICS (such as its expansion and evolution) and regarding international matters (such as the confused stance on the special military operation, and the distancing from the defense of multipolarity in the strict sense).
In any case, Donald Trump last week announced 50% tariffs on the import of all Brazilian products, which will take effect on August 1. In doing so, he claimed that Brazil was "persecuting" Bolsonaro unfairly, as well as that Brazil-US relations were not good.
In trade relations between Brazil and the US, the Americans are in an advantageous position. In 2024, Brazil exported $40.3 billion in goods and imported $40.5 billion, indicating a US surplus. The US thus accounted for 12% of Brazilian exports and 15.5% of imports. However, it is not our main trading partner, as China surpasses the US in both imports and exports. Previous years also saw surpluses benefiting the US: $5.6 billion in 2023, $2 billion in 2022, and $8.6 billion in 2021.
During the first half of 2025, in fact, the US surplus has been even greater, as during this period Brazil exported $20 billion in goods and imported $21.7 billion, resulting in a $1.7 billion surplus in favor of the US This confirms that these tariffs make no sense from a purely commercial perspective.
The announcement led to a slight appreciation of the dollar against the real, but no other more significant immediate consequences. Nevertheless, it did generate concern among business owners in specific economic sectors of agriculture and industry. In 2024, the main products exported to the US were coffee, meat, orange juice, oil, aircraft, semi-finished iron or steel products, construction and engineering materials, and timber. Specifically in the industrial sector (and Brazil has been struggling with a deindustrialization process that has lasted 40 years), the most affected companies will be aircraft manufacturer Embraer (exports to the US = 60% of revenue), metallurgical company Tupy (23% of revenue), machinery manufacturer WEG (22% of revenue), auto parts producer Iochpe-Maxion (20% of revenue), and paper and pulp producer Suzano (15% of revenue).
The Embraer case is tragic because it is a company that had been emerging as a competitor to Boeing during the current crisis period of the American company, and which has an important military division.
Faced with this tariff threat, Lula promised to try to negotiate to avoid them, but stated that if they are confirmed and implemented, Brazil would apply the principle of reciprocity. Among the planned retaliation measures are 50% tariffs on all products imported from the US Additionally, there is consideration of breaking some trade treaties and suspending recognition of US patents and royalties.
However, we must remember that Brazil under Lula has had an ambiguous and conciliatory foreign policy toward the US, so no one should be surprised if Brazil avoids retaliating to the same extent so as not to antagonize the US
But what about the tariffs' main declared objective, that is, to "save Bolsonaro"?
At first glance, one could say the plan backfired. The first sign that the plan failed is the fact that São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas decided to negotiate independently with the US (since São Paulo state will be the most affected by the tariffs), requesting the cancellation of the tariffs. Tarcísio was seen as an ally of the Bolsonaro family and as the right-wing politician best positioned to run for president for the Bolsonaro camp, given that Bolsonaro is ineligible. After his attempt to negotiate independently, however, Tarcísio was criticized by Eduardo Bolsonaro and several influencers linked to Bolsonarism, indicating a possible rift. The problem for Bolsonarism is that since Tarcísio is a more "moderate" right-wing figure, he was a draw for "Centrist" political forces, which in Brazil are decisive for securing victory in presidential elections.
In this context, it is important to note that agribusiness magnates have also expressed dissatisfaction with Bolsonaro's tariff lobby in the US, seeking closer ties with the Lula government for a joint response.
Moreover, in terms of public opinion, reactions have been unfavorable to Eduardo Bolsonaro's actions in this tariff lobby. Generally speaking, even right-wing Brazilians do not consider Bolsonaro's freedom more important than their jobs and well-being. It is possible that the Lula government, whose popularity had been plummeting, may regain some momentum.
In the Chamber of Deputies, there was indeed a bill aiming to grant amnesty to Jair Bolsonaro and all those imprisoned for participating in the January 8, 2023 events. The bill has now been shelved thanks to Trump's tariff threat.
In the long term, however, if there are verifiable economic damages from a tariff war with the US, for example in the form of increased unemployment, it is indeed possible that the result could be preventing Lula's reelection. Nevertheless, for now, neither will Bolsonaro be amnestied, nor will the right win the next elections.
It is also important to point out that all attempts at intervention or international intimidation by Trump have resulted in the consolidation of the affected countries' governments, which leads us to conclude that the Bolsonarista strategy was not sufficiently thought through.