Martin Jay
Was Putin played by Trump ? Are these two world leaders really friends who can now work together on Ukraine - or on anything else, for that matter?
Was Putin played by Trump ? Are these two world leaders really friends who can now work together on Ukraine - or on anything else, for that matter?
Analysts will now be scrutinizing China and Russia's next move following Trump's dramatic seizure of power in Venezuela, his theft of its oil, and his reassertion of American dominance in the region. For Trump and his cabal, this is a tremendous victory by their own values and worldview. Some argue that before the U.S. can reinstall itself as a global hegemon, it must first re-establish itself as a regional superpower. Job done. No South American elite will sleep comfortably now if they are buying Russian or Chinese arms or considering joining BRICS. Those already in the new Eastern trading bloc, like Brazil, will be left wondering about the madness of Donald Trump - and whether he has any limits at all after the Venezuela invasion.
What is remarkable is how little effort the Trump administration makes to disguise its true intentions - and how little resistance, even token, is offered by Europe.
Analysts have long insisted that Trump's Venezuela policy had little to do with drugs. Most of the fentanyl fuelling America's opioid epidemic does not originate in Venezuela, despite Trump's repeated claims linking Maduro to drug cartels.
This has always been about regime change - an objective championed in certain Washington circles for over a decade, with renewed momentum since Marco Rubio became Secretary of State and set his sights on toppling Cuba's government.
For Trump, the prize was twofold. First, to set a new standard in South America and across the Global South: the U.S. will flex its muscles and no longer tolerate non-aligned actors who maintain cordial relations with Washington while assisting Russia, China, and Iran. Second, to strike at China by blocking its access to the cheap, vital oil that fuels its economy. This second layer of the plan also indirectly hits Russia, a key ally of Beijing.
Trump's victory in Venezuela, however, will bring consequences in the coming weeks and months - ushering in a new world order that can only harm the U.S. economy, a factor he has clearly failed to consider. Trump never strategizes, never thinks long-term, never considers impact. While the Delta Force operation was remarkable for its speed and success (the last comparable U.S. invasion, in Panama in 1989, took two weeks to locate and capture strongman Manuel Noriega), we shouldn't overlook that it relied entirely on a single close aide to Maduro who betrayed him. It's entirely plausible that Trump cannot answer simple questions from journalists about how things will be run in Caracas because he wasn't planning for a 24-hour operation, but for one lasting weeks, if not months. The entire elite forces operation hinged on one individual's intelligence being accurate on the day.
Perhaps caught off guard by the speed of the operation, Trump will now face even tougher questions: How does this affect your once-great relationship with Putin ? Or better yet: Does this put the U.S. in a stronger position in the tariff war with China?
Putin, it is reported, was horrified by the U.S.-led bombing of Libya and the ghastly slaying of Gaddafi. It is inconceivable that the warm relations forged at the Alaska summit can be sustained after Maduro's capture - a point underscored by Putin's immediate demand for Maduro's release as his first official response. Russian analysts who were sceptical of Alaska may now tell Putin, "You were played," given that Trump has just kidnapped a key Russian ally in South America and is already stealing its oil. Putin's response - and, more importantly, how Trump responds in the coming days - will be critical to averting global conflict. Iran could become a new venture invested in at an entirely new level - especially given Trump's recent social media warning to Tehran that America is "locked and loaded" and ready to intervene if demonstrations are not handled "in a civilized manner," as defined by Washington.
For the first time, a salient question is being asked by Chinese and Russian leaders: "Has Trump lost his mind?" Before, such remarks were flippant and unserious, but the new world order he is trying to forge has led some to genuinely question his sanity. Most Americans, however, do not see the Venezuela coup in its true context. They are poorly informed and fail to grasp that a commercial confrontation with China cannot be won. Top experts already point to China dumping the dollar and buying gold, which would devalue the currency. If China permanently blocks the sale of rare earth minerals to the U.S. - impacting electronics, electric cars, and even the arms industry - the Caracas stunt will be seen for what it is: a foreign policy gambit that will sink Trump and his legacy. How will his media machine handle increased prices for Chinese goods as American companies struggle ? Or might Europe have the last laugh if China's blockade leads U.S. consumers to buy more European products?
The new Trump who emerged from the Venezuela coup - facing journalists with a vaguely prominent but tired gaze, dazzled by victory - is about to face resistance from a new world order of his own making. His late-night, rambling tweets threatening Iran come from the Zionists who control him and should not be taken seriously. Of course, Trump doesn't read and is worryingly ignorant of even his own country's history. How can he lecture Iran's leader on handling protests when American troops killed four university students with live rounds at Kent State in 1970 ? The irony-free zone in which Trump operates when threatening regimes around the world is becoming hilariously out of touch, and he himself a joke. Until now.
The Venezuela stunt was led by Rubio, whose entire political mantra is based on hitting Cuba, his own country, and removing its regime. But we must consider the cost in the never-never land Trump inhabits - an Alice in Wonderland where no advisors warn him against such moves and there seem to be no consequences. His relationship with Putin will never be the same unless he releases Maduro. China cannot allow Trump to cripple its economy by cutting off its main oil arteries. The best Trump can hope for is that Xi simply calculates the economic loss and imposes it back on the U.S. economy. In reality, it's hard to imagine China and Russia not strategizing to halt the momentum that Trump's coterie of ignorant halfwits seems to believe he has.
International law is something the U.S. only imposes on others, without respecting it itself. Anywhere in the world with mineral wealth or oil - whose leaders refuse to bow to America's terms of servility - will be a target. U.S. bombing in Nigeria should worry its government, as should Trump's moronic idea of "taking" Greenland, which would put Denmark in a troubling position with both the Trump administration and the EU, possibly sparking a new Brexit-like crisis as Brussels lacks the courage to stand up to America's mad new king and his wacky ideas. How long before America "discovers" terror groups in, say, Uganda, which has recently struck gold?
The recent, sensationally cowardly statements by the EU Commission president - a power-crazed lunatic running the EU like a mafia operation, wiping out dissent while granting herself near-monthly salary increases - are particularly worrying. The shift from begrudging support for U.S. foreign policy to full endorsement of America's breach of international law is notable. Who, if not China and Russia, can stop this lunatic now that he is gaining confidence and his mad ideas are taking root?