State of Play
Why Israel Can't Win in Lebanon: Greg Stoker Explains
At this stage of Israel's war in the north, a ground invasion will not occur. The reason is straightforward: Israel simply cannot launch one. A combination of manpower and equipment shortages, a depletion of aerial munitions after 11 months of relentless bombings in Gaza, and the absence of clear, attainable strategic goals ensures that the Israeli military will continue its standard approach. This involves extensive aerial bombardments of densely populated civilian areas, accompanied by a push for victory through information operations.
Despite Israel's information operations, resistance groups in Gaza, though significantly degraded, continue to conduct combat operations and are expected to do so for the foreseeable future. If the IDF has been unable to defeat Hamas-a group that has operated, trained, and fought within the confines of an open-air prison with limited supply lines-after a year of conflict, the idea of taking on a far larger, better-equipped, and more sophisticated military force is simply unrealistic.
Therefore, Israel is likely to continue its long-standing strategy of conducting mass bombings and unconventional attacks, aimed at deterring Hezbollah from invading-an event that remains highly improbable-and coercing the group into submission by using the lives of Lebanese civilians as leverage.
In the past 24 hours, the Israeli Air Force has launched a series of aggressive and indiscriminate kinetic strikes on towns and villages in southern Lebanon. Prime Minister Netanyahu's earlier declaration of "turning Beirut into Gaza" now appears to be coming to fruition.
The production of AI and CGI videos alleging that secret Hezbollah weapons caches are stored in every house in southern Lebanon is eerily reminiscent of the lead-up to the first bombing of Al-Shifa hospital last November. At that time, CGI videos were used to depict an intricate "Hamas tunnel system" beneath the hospital, which served as the justification for its destruction and the subsequent targeting of other hospitals in Gaza. However, the supposed sophisticated command center in the heart of Al-Shifa never materialized-only CDs of MRI scans were found.
These videos provided a pretext for escalating aerial violence against civilians and civilian infrastructure, leading to the collective punishment of the entire population in an attempt to pressure Hamas in Gaza. This blatant disregard for the Law of Land Warfare and International Humanitarian Law is likely to be repeated in southern Lebanon, targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure once again.
Furthermore, based on this unsubstantiated military propaganda, the IDF has ordered mass evacuations of Lebanese civilians from the Beqaa Valley, mirroring the catastrophe seen in Gaza.
After the heavy blows dealt to Hezbollah by Israeli intelligence services last week-beginning with the pager attacks and culminating in targeted strikes on senior commanders of the elite Radwan Unit-the group, though temporarily disrupted in its command and control, remains resolute. Hezbollah cannot, and will not, cease its operations against an increasingly aggressive Israeli military.
While the current situation is undeniably bleak, join us tonight on State of Play as we examine how Israel's efforts to deter Hezbollah are destined to fail. We will explore how its overarching strategy, like much of its policy, is ultimately self-destructive.
Greg Stoker is a former US Army Ranger with a background in human intelligence collection and analysis. After serving four combat deployments in Afghanistan, he studied anthropology and International Relations at Columbia University. He is currently a military and geopolitical analyst and a social media "influencer," though he hates the term.
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