Martin Jay
Saudi Arabia's pipeline blown up, MbS rejected by tribes and clerics, Houthis ascendant. Trump refuses to fight, betraying his Gulf ally.
Has Trump's Iran blunder cost the U.S. their entire presence in the Middle East, traditionally partnered with GCC countries ? Presently, all eyes are on Saudi Arabia and the desperate situation a young crown prince has placed himself in - and the recent news that Trump would not support him in his conflict with the Houthis. Trump's firm 'no' to Mohamed bin Salman not only shocked the Saudi prince himself but sent shockwaves throughout the entire region, signalling the end of America's role and indeed presence there. Ex-General David Petraeus might have been misquoted as saying that the U.S. was "out" of the Middle East, when in fact he said that U.S. bases were "no longer viable". But the sentiment is the same. How does the Trump administration rebuild these bases which experts have said could take years to bring back to their former glory ? Or, more to the point, would they even be welcome to do that, given that their presence is an oxymoron for their host countries. They are not there to defend those countries but rather act as a magnet for Iran's attacks which often extend to the country's infrastructure.
For Saudi Arabia to recently have its main east-west oil pipeline blown up by the Houthis is a seismic blow to its economy, as it has lost half of its revenue and will struggle to function as a state very shortly. MbS turned to both tribal leaders and even the religious pillar of Saudi society, but both rejected his pleas for assistance to fight the Houthis. The former group's rejection is particularly poignant and stands as a grim indication of how weak and vulnerable MbS is in his own country, despite the often-repeated fanfare by Western journalists about how much support he has from the youth. Young people, however, are unable to help MbS out of a hole which could see the Houthis even overthrow his regime. MbS is so desperate that he had to finally turn to the British to provide one refuelling aircraft based in Cyprus to help his air force - his last line of defence against the Houthis, who have recently struck ballistic missile sites and part of the capital, creating a panic of Yemenis, some of whom recently crossed the Red Sea and became refugees in Djibouti.
If the Houthis gain the upper hand, this is of course a strategic victory for Iran, as other GCC countries will note how a mere proxy of Iran was able to destroy the Saudi economy and even possibly be a catalyst for its leader to step down, or be a victim of a coup d'état from his own army. Remarkably, despite the entire catastrophic scenario being entirely the responsibility of Donald Trump starting a war with Iran on February 28th, Trump will not fight the Houthis to save Saudi Arabia - an extraordinary betrayal of a relationship held in such awe by Trump himself, who once welcomed the young prince to the White House, complete with the huge cardboard diagrams about Saudi wealth. The scenario underlines how weak and ineffective Trump is when he is alone, with Israel, and is faced with real war scenarios, rather than just signing off military aid deals like the recent $2.8bn USD gift of super bombs to Israel. When you 'fuck around and find out' in the Middle East, this comes with harder decisions to be made later on - and for the moment Trump has decided he doesn't want to fight the Houthis.
And is Trump really even interested any more in the region ? Now that there is so much gloom there making him look stupid both in front of his own press and the global media machine, it is so much easier to focus on Ukraine, where he feels he might have some leverage still. At an important UN assembly in New York he will meet the new UK prime minister for the first time, who, it would seem, he wants to turn to for help. Given that Andy Burnham's new government has actually stood firm on Israel and could be a vital partner for Trump to do the same, plus also Burnham is a staunch supporter of Ukraine, perhaps this first meeting can provide some valuable bandwidth for Trump, who badly needs to convince Zelensky to stop bombing critical energy sites in Russia. Given how much MI6 plays such a key role in everything that the Ukrainian military does, Trump may well think that a better relationship with the UK might be useful for him to pull more strings behind the scenes, as it becomes clearer and clearer to Trump just how much significance gas pump prices - and in particular diesel - have leading up to and during the midterm elections. If ever Trump needed to pull a rabbit out of the hat, it is right now, and much will depend on the chemistry of both Trump and Burnham, although both sides have shown signs that they want a working relationship. But Burnham should note the MbS story and learn the lessons. Any cooperation with Trump is limited to so many other factors that he is barely in control of - plus, of course, Trump is hardly an honest player and is bound at some point to break any deals. But in the present environment of disingenuous fear-mongering in many European countries who are pushing a fake narrative about an imminent war with Russia, his proximity to Putin could still yet prove useful.