Testing the waters: Could Turkey's Russian relations sink over Ukraine?
By Yeghia TASHJIAN
The war in Ukraine has become the latest test for Turkey's regional ambitions in confronting those of Russia, in what has clearly become a " cooperative rivalry." This is where both sides, despite their opposite views on various regional conflicts ranging from Libya to Syria to the South Caucasus, have worked to manage these conflicts without directly challenging one another.
The current crisis has raised Turkey's concerns of being in the firing line of Russia's hegemonic ambitions. It is important to note that Turkey and Russia are not allies, but bitter 'frenemies.' Despite having robust commercial, energy, diplomatic and military ties, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned back in 2016 that NATO has to act and increase its presence in the Black Sea.
Over the past two decades, Russia has consolidated its presence in the Black Sea region by directly controlling Georgia's Abkhazia and South Ossetia in 2008, and annexing Ukraine's Crimea in 2014. The Black Sea Fleet is responsible for bringing supplies to Russian forces in Syria, mostly based in the port of Tartus and Khmeimim airbase, as well as for patrolling the eastern Mediterranean. Russia's 2015 Maritime Doctrine clearly prioritizes the Black Sea as a pillar of its power projection.
Turkey's waning power in the Black Sea
Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea tipped the balance of military power in the Black Sea in favor of Moscow. Not only has Russia significantly increased its Exclusive Economic Zone and its Black Sea coastline, it has also cancelled existing agreements with Ukraine, which limited the latter's Black Sea fleet in Sevastopol.
Additionally, Russia has stationed new military ships and submarines and installed a dense network of advanced weapons systems across the Crimean peninsula. From Ankara's perspective, Turkey feels surrounded by Russian military presence from the north (Crimea), east (Armenia), and south (Syria).
In response, Erdogan initiated the construction of the Istanbul Canal to put additional pressure on Russia using the 1936 Montreux Convention whereby Turkey can close the Black Sea Straits to all warships in times of war.
Indeed, following NATO's intensified pressure, Ankara has started exercising its right under Article 19 of the Convention, and has warned all coastal and non-coastal states that it will not allow warships through the Bosporus and the Dardanelles. The convention also limits the period of stay for warships belonging to non-Black Sea states in the Black Sea.
However, this action also exposed Turkey's limitations by raising the questions: How will Turkey react if Russian naval warships seek passage through the Straits? Will Turkey prevent them? The answer is clear.
As a Black Sea state, Russia has the privileged right to transit the Turkish Straits to return its warships to their bases. The treaty states that during armed conflict, belligerent warships "shall not" pass through the Straits unless the ships belong to a state that borders the Black Sea and are returning to their home ports.
Once Turkey determined that Russia was "at war," it had no choice under the treaty but to stop Russian warships from passing through the Straits. The only exception for passage is for Russian warships from other areas returning to their bases in the Black Sea.
For example, a Russian fleet registered in the Black Sea but currently located in the Mediterranean Sea is allowed to pass through the Turkish Straits and return to its base. The condition also applies to Russian fleets currently in the Black Sea that belong to a base in the Mediterranean or Baltic Sea. Russia is free to take them out of the Black Sea. This option provides Russia with enough space to maneuver its naval power and downplay Article 19 of the Montreux Convention.
Turkey is aware that blocking access of Russian warships through its Straits will be viewed in Moscow as a "declaration of war." This is the last thing Erdogan wants, knowing full well that the economic and political consequences will be harsher than those Turkey tasted after it downed the Russian jet over Syria in 2015.
Turkey's balancing act between Russia and Ukraine
While Turkey will not directly provoke Russia, it has increased its military cooperation with Ukraine. This includes the supply of Bayraktar TB2 drones to the Kiev government. The Russians, for their part, have shown their preparedness for Turkish drones. Despite the fact that the Bayraktar TB2 drones are still operating and useful to the Ukrainian side, the Russian Ministry of Defense almost daily announces that its forces are downing many drones, including TB2.
This military relationship has also involved Ukraine supplying Turkey with military engines intended to boost Turkey's growing arms industry; in particular, the Bayraktar's successor drone and T292 heavy attack helicopters that are currently under production.
For Russia, this poses a threat, as in the future it may shift the military balance of power towards Turkey and Ukraine in the Black Sea. It is for this reason that Russian forces destroyed most of the Ukrainian heavy military infrastructure (including its naval and air force) and arms industry.
As such, Erdogan will aim to continue cooperation with Russia in the region; but he is equally likely to step up engagement with NATO to improve his global standing and reduce international criticism of his domestic conduct. Erdogan knows that standing against Russia and directly confronting Moscow is very risky as - excluding the ongoing war in Ukraine - he would start a war on three fronts in the region: in Libya, Syria, and Nagorno-Karabakh.
In order to extract itself from the ongoing difficulty of placating both sides, in recent days Turkey has engaged in proactive diplomacy and mediation between Kiev and Moscow. Ankara announced that the two adversaries have made progress on their negotiations to halt the war and are " close to an agreement." However, Ukraine's president responded by saying that any consequential agreement with Russia would be put to a referendum. This signaled that there is no agreement in sight and Ankara's mediating efforts are fruitless.
Turkey will not gamble with Ukraine against Russia
Dr Maxim Suchkov, a Moscow-based expert in the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) expresses concern that Turkey may view the crisis as an opportunity to re-establish itself in the Black Sea and strengthen its relations with the west. Ankara enjoys good ties with both Moscow and Kiev and seeks to balance itself, supplying arms to Ukraine, on the one hand, but also refraining from sanctioning Russia.
Suchkov argues that Turkey may indeed be useful to the Russian endgame here, but "Moscow should also be careful since President Erdogan is known for his penchant to fish in muddy waters." Hence, even if the outcome of the conflict does not favor Erdogan's interests, Turkey may try to wrest something out of this crisis.
For this reason, President Erdogan cannot antagonize Russia and risk full-scale war as, domestically, the implications of this battle will be heavy on the Turkish government. Already, on 22 February, six Turkish opposition parties, not including the Kurdish HDP, called on a unified platform for the revival of the parliamentary system in the country with the aim of establishing an alliance to topple Erdogan in the coming parliamentary and presidential elections in June 2023.
According to recent public surveys, the opposition coalition is polling ahead, and indeed may oust Erdogan, given the financial chaos Turkey is experiencing. The current crisis will worsen the economic and political situation of Turkey.
One sector that is especially vulnerable is tourism, as between four to seven million Russian tourists and around two million Ukrainian tourists visit Turkey each year. Moreover, western sanctions on Russia will make money transactions difficult between both countries.
Crucially, Turkey imports almost 50 percent of its gas from Russia, and with the increase in global gas prices, Turks find themselves in a difficult quandary. For these reasons, Ankara is unlikely to undertake any risky gambles and will continue to strike a balanced posture in the crisis.
Turkey still has an important role to play
Turkey has general elections scheduled for June 2023, hence any change in the leadership in Turkey would affect the current track of Russian-Turkish relations. In a post-Erdogan Turkey, Ankara is likely to move closer to the western camp due to the pro-western (pro-US) leanings of the Turkish military, entrepreneurs, technocrats, diplomats, and civil servants - regardless of their liberal or nationalistic personal views.
This could form a long-term challenge for Russia-Turkey relations, given the successful "cooperative rivalry" both sides managed to arrange in Libya, Syria, and Nagorno-Karabakh. It is worth mentioning that on 2 March, Meral Akşener, leader of the Turkish opposition IYI Party, raised the alarm on whether there were any guarantees that Turkey's eastern provinces would be safe from a similar kind of Russian aggression. She also called Russia a "security threat" for Turkey. This is another indication that the Turkish opposition is not on the same wavelength as Erdogan's multi-vector foreign policy.
Moscow has never viewed Ankara as an equal partner, but as a junior partner that could help configure a regional order which benefits Russian interests and decreases western influence. However, if Russia becomes stuck in a Ukrainian quagmire, it may need Ankara to arrange a temporary settlement.
Will the Syrian and Nagorno-Karabakh scenario be repeated - in which both sides sidelined western influence and Russia accepted a Turkish role in the region? If Ukraine is divided into two zones, would Russia accept a Turkish 'peacekeeping force' in the western part of Ukraine? Would the Americans give Turkey the green light to enter such a game? What would Ankara gain in return? Is such a military adventure within Turkey's capabilities?
According to Dr Mitat Çelikpala , Professor of International Relations and the Dean of Faculty of Economics, Administrative and Social Sciences at Kadir Has University, such a scenario is beyond Turkey's financial and military capacities - and Turkey cannot act unilaterally. Hence, for now, Turkey must continue its role of mediation between both sides to avoid any spillover effect near its borders.