Pepe Escobar
It's now firmly established that the Ukrainian counter-offensive turned out to be the feeder of a bloody meat grinder of astonishing proportions.
It's now firmly established that the Ukrainian counter-offensive turned out to be the feeder of a bloody meat grinder of astonishing proportions.
Of every 100 people who joined Ukrainian units last Fall, months before the counter-offensive, only 10 to 20 remain. The rest are dead, wounded or incapacitated. These stats were confirmed by the online publication Poltavashchyna.
It's quite enlightening to check the following snapshot of the Ukrainian frontlines only five months ago, in Spring, slightly before the start of the counter-offensive. The data was leaked by Ukrainians. The authenticity of the documents has been fully confirmed.
This is a report prepared by the temporary acting commander of the 2nd mechanized battalion of military unit A4007, Captain Dmytro Bilyi. He is reporting directly to the commander of the military unit.
Bilyi says that between April 19 and 20, 2023, he as temporary acting commander as well as other officers have concluded that the 2nd battalion had reached critically low morale and psychological conditions.
The battalion had also suffered numerous sanitary and irretrievable losses. Most soldiers refused to perform combat missions. The level of morale in different companies was evaluated as ranging between 20% and 42%.
This is a list of soldiers from military unit A7097 who have voluntarily left a position called "Sadik". Translation: the Ukrainians lost control over this strong point, Sadik, because of these guys. Among them there is a Captain, Mykhailo Shabunin.
This is another report about a group of soldiers who have "voluntarily" abandoned the battlefield.
This is an urgent report on the critically low level of combat readiness of the 5th company of the 2nd battalion. The staffing of the company fell to 60% - and the unit needs to be withdrawn from the frontline.
This is the personal data of 10 servicemen that left. So relatives and friends can actually get some info about soldiers.
This is an urgent report by Major Dmytro Hnatyuk, commander of the 2nd batallion on massive "voluntary" withdrawing of firing positions Yaremche, Dakh, Derevo, Polohy, Halych.
Hnatyuk managed to get some 10 soldiers to return to their positions. The rest didn't.
What next?
The documents above paint a clear picture of what was going on in the frontlines back in April. The situation now may be even more dire. The Ukrainians already started their counteroffensive with very low morale. No wonder the actual results were catastrophic.
And yet none of that should elicit complacency. There's a feeling that as it stands all's quiet in the Donbass front. Not really. Ukrainians continue to assault Russian positions with maniacal persistence. After all they dispose of infinite numbers of infantry - faithful to Kiev's "logic" of war to the last Ukrainian.
The Kiev machine is now being retooled, and new units are being prepared. Russians did destroy an astonishing number of Western weaponry, but Kiev's forces are not depleted - yet.
There was quite a lot of expectation that after the failed counter-offensive Kiev would negotiate. That won't happen. The Hegemon won't allow it. So the "counter-offensive", 2.0 or whatever, will continue. Kiev's forces are getting ready for renewed action before the Summer of 2024. So Russia better get its own devastating offensive rolling - sooner rather than later.
Never forget: the Hegemon's Plan A is yet another Forever War. There's no Plan B.