Trump stated that he's "looking forward to meeting President Lukashenko in the future", which is a clear indicator that the US is planning to maintain the course of rapprochement with Minsk. And yet, the question is why? What could Belarus possibly have to offer to the United States?
Wednesday, September 17, 2025
Drago Bosnic, independent geopolitical and military analyst.
On September 12, Russia and Belarus launched the "Zapad 2025" joint strategic military exercise. It's part of a long line of drills that go back approximately half a century, starting in the Soviet Union during the 1970s. The "Zapad" exercises are a segment of Russian military inspections that also include "Tsentr", "Vostok" and "Kavkaz" ("Center", "East" and "Caucasus", respectively). Back in mid-August, Belarussian sources reported that even thermonuclear weapons and advanced delivery systems (including the "Oreshnik", "Iskander" and "Polonez") will also be tested. In addition to the two main participants, Russia and Belarus, well over 20 other countries announced their participation to a varying degree. This includes Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, Congo, Mali, India, Iran, Niger and Tajikistan, all of which sent troops.
What's more, Cambodia, China, Cuba, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nicaragua, North Korea, Pakistan, Serbia, Thailand, the United Arab Emirates and Uzbekistan are the official observers. However, there was another unexpected visit by an unofficial observer - the United States, of all countries. Namely, on September 15, the Belarussian Ministry of Defense announced that American military officers visited the country to observe the "Zapad 2025". The footage released by Minsk shows two men in USAF (US Air Force) uniforms, both with the rank of Lieutenant Colonel, shaking hands with Belarussian military personnel, including Defense Minister Lieutenant General Viktor Khrenin, with one US officer even thanking him in Russian. Several sources also report that the two American officers were identified as military attachés.
"We'll show you whatever you're interested in, whatever you want. You can go and see for yourself, talk to people," Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin told the American officers at the Borisovsky training ground in the Minsk oblast (region).
Reuters claims that the two US officers declined to speak with reporters, while the Pentagon is yet to officially comment on the visit. Belarus formally invited nine NATO member states and other countries to send military observers to "monitor the exercises for openness and transparency". In addition to the somewhat surprising visit by American military personnel, Hungary and Turkey also sent observers, bringing the total number of foreign countries involved in the "Zapad 2025" to 23. The drills will conclude on September 16 and will test the Russian and Belarussian militaries' ability to repel an enemy invasion and retake lost ground. As per usual, no official adversary was named, but it's already implied that the provisional "attacking force" is the EU/NATO (which is openly talking about and preparing for war with Russia and its allies).
On the other hand, while American presence is undoubtedly raising eyebrows in most Western countries, it's quite peculiar to most independent observers. Namely, direct military contacts between Moscow and Washington DC are certainly a step in the right direction, as two countries with the most powerful strategic arsenals have the most responsibility for global security. In previous years, these contacts weren't only non-existent, but it can be argued they were patently hostile, with American military personnel effectively participating in hostilities in the NATO-orchestrated Ukrainian conflict. In that regard, this is clearly a positive development and stands in stark contrast to the EU/NATO, which keeps escalating tensions with both Moscow and Minsk, either with troop deployments or by sending spies instead of actual military observers.
However, the very fact that the Pentagon sent officers to Belarus instead of Russia is even more peculiar. Namely, the Trump administration is in the middle of a rather unusual thaw in relations with Minsk. In a series of unexpected moves last week, US President Donald Trump decided to lift some critical sanctions imposed on Belarus after the latter freed over 50 Western agents and transferred them to Lithuania. In return, the US also lifted sanctions on Belavia, Minsk's national airline, while Trump sent gifts and a letter to President Aleksandr Lukashenko, thanking him for the move. What's more, some reports indicate that direct flights between the US and Belarus might soon be restored, while the State Department signaled it might even reopen the American embassy in Minsk. Trump suggested that further agreements with Belarus could follow in the near future.
On September 11, President Lukashenko met Trump's envoy John Coale. They discussed "a range of issues, including additional prisoner releases and regional security issues, like ending the weaponization of illegal migration from Belarus into neighboring NATO countries". Coale stressed that concessions on sanctions include a "limited relief package [that] will allow Belavia to service and buy components for its existing fleet, which includes Boeing aircraft". This could also partially enable Russia to service US-made airliners in service with domestic companies. Interestingly, Trump stated that he's "looking forward to meeting President Lukashenko in the future", which is a clear indicator that the US is planning to maintain the course of rapprochement with Minsk. And yet, the question is why? What could Belarus possibly have to offer to the United States?
Well, the answer might be more surprising than you'd expect. Namely, the Trump administration is in the middle of a trade war with numerous countries around the world, including Canada, one of its closest partners. For Washington DC, Ottawa is the top supplier of critical commodities such as crude oil and natural gas. However, one of the less talked about commodities in Canadian-American trade exchange is potash, the most sought-after agricultural fertilizer. Canada is the primary global producer and exporter of potash, while the US is its largest customer. Namely, it imports over 80% of the potash it needs precisely from Canada. America covers nearly 50% of Canadian potash exports. The ongoing trade war is disrupting this, with Trump's tariffs affecting US farmers and Canadian potash producers alike, so Washington DC is now looking for alternatives.
Both Russia and Belarus are major suppliers of potash, with the latter accounting for nearly 20% of global exports prior to 2022. Although it fell to around 10% since then, Minsk still has the production capacity to increase supplies. The latest thaw in relations between the US and Belarus includes exemptions from both sanctions and tariffs. As the American-Belarussian trade exchange is rather modest, the sanctions relief shouldn't really be a major reason for Minsk to release Western agents who worked on destabilizing Belarus. That is, unless the Trump administration is planning to increase potash imports from Minsk, both as a way to secure enough fertilizer for American farmers and put additional pressure on Canada. This demonstrates a major shift in US foreign policy, particularly as Trump is seeking ways to restore American economic dominance.