Erkin Oncan
Regardless of what is said in politics, or what narratives are told, the degree to which a country is dependent on imperialism can best be understood by examining its political, economic, and military relations.
As the countries Turkey defines as its "strategic enemies" collapse one by one, the notion of a "balance-seeking state reason" - so frequently invoked by circles that assess international relations through a geopolitics detached from class analysis - is also being lost, or rather, is being forced to disappear.
While the global public discusses possible attacks on Venezuela and the prospect of a U.S. bombardment of Iran, Turkey is preparing to assume more active roles both in Baltic and Eastern European airspace and in the field of "maritime security" in the Black Sea. Needless to say, the issue is NATO's interests.
The first of these roles is Turkey's task within the Baltic Air Policing mission. As part of NATO's Baltic Air Policing mission, Turkey will deploy fighter jets to Ämari Air Base in Estonia. Moreover, reports in the press suggest that NATO has "called in" Turkish jets earlier than planned.
Stating that "Türkiye makes significant contributions to NATO's Enhanced Air Policing activities conducted to protect NATO airspace in peacetime," the Ministry of National Defence recalled previous "successful" missions and announced that Turkey will participate in air policing duties in Estonia between August and November 2026, followed by another deployment in Romania between December 2026 and March 2027.
What is Baltic Air Policing?
What NATO refers to as Baltic Air Policing is, in essence, a clear display of military power and a surveillance operation. Under this mission, NATO forces conduct continuous aerial patrols over the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
After these three Baltic countries joined NATO in 2004, the alliance made the mission permanent, citing the absence of their own fighter jet fleets.
What was initially described as a "temporary" mission has become a key pillar of NATO's eastward expansion toward Russia.
Although the mission's official mandate is defined as intercepting aircraft that violate airspace, identifying unidentified flights, and protecting allied airspace, in practice it has long been used for surveillance activities carried out by NATO jets flying very close to Russia's borders.
It can be considered one of the main factors that continuously turns Eastern Europe and the Baltic region into a zone of military tension.
From the perspective of "alliance" relations, instead of contributing to the development of the Baltic states' own defence capacities, NATO filled their airspace on a rotational basis with fighter jets from major NATO countries, establishing an explicit relationship of military dependency. In this sense, the mission is also symbolic in showing how far the concept of "alliance" can be stretched.
In this system, so-called "small powers" like the Baltic states are presented as protected allies, yet their defence doctrines are fully dependent on NATO interests, and they are turned into "buffer zones" that would be the first targets in the event of a hot conflict.
It is a mechanism that does not preserve peace but manages the absence of peace; that does not defend but prepares war plans; that does not protect allies but binds them to the interests of major powers through total dependency.
The central base of the Baltic Air Policing mission is Šiauliai Air Base in Lithuania. This base permanently hosts aircraft from NATO member states, stores missiles, and has NATO-standard radar, command-and-control, and logistics infrastructure. Although it appears to belong to Lithuania, it is effectively run by NATO. Lithuania has no authority over which aircraft take off from this base, with which weapons, or against which targets.
The second key base of the mission is Ämari Air Base in Estonia, where Turkish jets will be deployed this year. Similarly, this base hosts NATO aircraft, is integrated with NATO AWACS flights capable of detecting low-altitude potential enemy aircraft, and represents a point of military buildup that turns Estonia into a "first target."
The mission's support base is Lielvarde Air Base in Latvia. With infrastructure developed specifically for the Baltic Air Policing mission, it is poised to become one of the "important" bases of the coming period.
Although it is called a "Baltic mission," its area of impact is not limited to the Baltic states. Malbork Air Base, used as a reinforcement hub, serves as NATO's rear base for the Baltic mission in Poland.
Turkey's participation
Turkey's participation in these and similar missions stems not from its own national interests but, like that of other member states, from the interests of NATO leadership - in other words, U.S. imperialism.
There is no threat directed at Turkey from Baltic airspace. In other words, through such missions Turkey is not defending itself but U.S. interests. While politically "challenging" the Atlantic, this is another way of saying "I will never break away from you" in the military sphere.
This process, promoted with justifications such as "we gain experience," "our prestige increases," and "our weight within NATO grows," amounts to nothing more than turning Turkish soldiers into extras in the "expected great war."
As our military becomes increasingly integrated into U.S.- and Europe-centered war doctrines, our politics and economy are also shaped according to those interests. In other words, as long as we fly over Baltic skies on behalf of NATO, our sovereignty over our own skies diminishes.
Black Sea "security"
From the Ministry of National Defence's statement, we also learn that Turkey will carry out air policing duties in Romania between December 2026 and March 2027. So why Romania?
Because Romania hosts the Mihail Kogălniceanu Air Base, which can be described as NATO's gateway to the Black Sea - a base that houses U.S. and NATO F-16s, UAVs, and radar command centers.
And since we mentioned the Black Sea, it is worth drawing attention to another meeting held on this issue with Turkey's participation.
Military delegations from Turkey, Bulgaria, and Romania met in Ankara to "discuss issues related to maritime security in the Black Sea." This meeting is the next step following the Black Sea Mine Countermeasures (MCM Black Sea) Task Group Memorandum signed by the three countries in 2024. Under this framework, the three states will work to "restore the Black Sea as a secure region."
Given the political positions of these three countries, it is not difficult to guess that the unstated primary objective of this task is to position against Russia, another key stakeholder in the Black Sea.
At the same time, Turkey appears to be paying attention to two factors in NATO activities in the Black Sea: avoiding direct confrontation with Russia and preventing violations of the Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Straits.
For instance, in 2021, the deployment of U.S. warships to the Black Sea came onto the agenda, and Turkey emphasized the limits imposed by Montreux. Similarly, following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, Turkey applied Article 19 of the Montreux Convention and closed the straits to the belligerent parties.
However, the very balance that allowed Turkey this room for maneuver is now disappearing. Internationally, this can be attributed to the new phase of aggression led by U.S. President Donald Trump; regionally, to Russia's weakening, the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's government in Syria, and preparations for an attack on Iran.
In other words, as the countries Turkey regards as its "strategic enemies" collapse, the so-called "balance-seeking state reason" so often cited by circles that assess international relations through a geopolitics detached from class analysis is also being lost - and necessarily so. We have been drawing attention to this trajectory for a long time.
Regardless of what is said in politics, or what narratives are told, the degree to which a country is dependent on imperialism can best be understood by examining its political, economic, and military relations.
In such a picture, the clearest answer to this question is provided by the NATO Summit to be held in Ankara this summer - and by Turkish jets that will carry out surveillance for the United States thousands of kilometers away from Turkey.