Pepe Escobar
The blockade is going global. Next stop is the Strait of Malacca.
No serious analysis can possibly take into consideration the Epstein Syndicate's mentally retarded blah blah blah about what goes on in the corridors of power in Tehran.
As if they had any informed clue.
Nothing is "fractured" (apart from Baboon of Barbaria's psyche). There are of course different conceptual approaches, and a lively national public debate. But on a high decision level the whole system is strongly unified.
To start with, this is a whole new system, in full transition. At the decision core we have an emerging security-centered Quartet: IRGC chief Ahmad Vahidi; Parliament speaker Ghalibaf; secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Mohammad Zolghadr; and secretary of the Expediency Council, Mohsen Rezaee.
This security-centered imperative coexists with the previous hybrid arrangement, exemplified by the "reformists", which include President Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Araghchi.
Of the 13 members of the Supreme National Security Council, only 2 are "reformists".
And above all is the deciding authority of Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei - traditionally very close to the IRGC.
All that is incomprehensible for Epstein Syndicate propagandists, or for some two-bit Saudi "expert" spinning the fantasy of a "revolutionary coup" used by the IRGC to place Ghalibaf, Pezeshkian, and Araghchi under house arrest.
As much along the diplomatic vector as well as the military vector, Tehran was very clear, over and over again. No negotiating with the Empire of Piracy under a naval blockade - which is, in fact, an act of war. No negotiating while their vessels are being attacked - which is a de facto violation of the ceasefire.
Foreign Minister Araghchi has been straight to the point. So once again: no lifting of the naval blockade, no negotiating.
Iran will not (italics mine) blink. Whatever it takes. The responsibility of destroying the global economy relies entirely on Barbaria.
An illegal blockade and the concept of "innocent passage"
The Baboon of Barbaria's negotiation "strategy" - raddled with dementia and hate - is based on three crude principles: maximum pressure; endless deadlines; and endless vociferating threats to destroy Iran's infrastructure.
So in the lead up towards a possible Islamabad-2, Tehran chose to go for strategic silence. Tehran ghosted Baboon of Barbaria all the way. Discombobulated, he obviously had to blink - big time. Now he's not setting additional deadlines. He's not threatening to destroy civilian infrastructure. The Big Question is what happens to the naval blockade.
Article 3(c) of UN General Assembly Resolution 3314 (the Definition of Aggression) goes straight to the point: "The blockade of the ports or coasts of a State by the armed forces of another State" qualifies as an act of aggression.
Hence, it is a straightforward violation of the ceasefire.
What Tehran is doing when it comes to transit through the Strait of Hormuz is a completely different story.
Iran has not blockaded any foreign ports, or declared a blanket blockade. It has imposed a tollbooth on hostile vessels transiting a Strait that runs through its own territorial waters.
That is absolutely lawful in terms of right to self-defense - responding to a unilateral, illegal armed blitzkrieg by the imperial superpower.
Moreover, following the 1958 Geneva Convention on the Territorial Sea and the Contiguous Zone and its own domestic legislation (the 1993 Act on the Maritime Areas of the Islamic Republic of Iran), Iran has always stressed that the right of "innocent passage" does not apply to vessels that threaten its security.
Hormuz is the defnition of a strategic chokepoint. It goes through Iranian territorial waters. So obviously Tehran has the sovereign right to regulate the passage to non-innocent ships.
Of course The Empire of Chaos, Lies, Plunder and Piracy is oblivious to anything lawful. Especially because what's already in play is a de facto global maritime blockade - imposed on Iran, Russia, of course China, and sooner rather than later any other nation across the Global South.
An American blockade destroying the global economy
The war on Iran and now the naval blockade is a no-holds-barred attack on the global economy. Global energy supply is already down to an astounding 60% - only in less than 2 months. The horrors ahead span everything from lockdowns and countless grounded flights because of no jet fuel to food shortages coming next summer because of Fertilizer Hell; possible food riots; and even the possible introduction of a CBDC for food rationing.
The Rocky Horror Show gets louder minute after minute. Tankers have literally stopped crossing the Strait of Hormuz; add to it the Empire of Piracy firing 5-inch naval gun rounds into assorted Iranian ships. Commercial insurance for Gulf tankers is up a whopping 400% in only a week.
As it stands, it's clear Tehran will never accept a permanent naval blockade. So there will be retaliation. Whatever happens next, Brent crude is bound to go past $120 a barrel. Jet fuel supply will tighten big time by the end of next week. Diesel and gasoline prices will follow within two weeks.
We are watching, in real time, the global energy market screeching to a halt. Just as Iran was relaxing the Strait of Hormuz toolbooth, as part of the ceasefire, Barbaria came up with its naval blockade.
So it's Barbaria which is actually on the way to destroy the global economy, as AI demand, jet fuel, diesel, shipping, everything is seriously compromised by an immobilized tsunami of oil.
The solution - for now - is rerouting through the Bab al-Mandeb, responsible for 12% of all global trade and 10% of globally traded oil: the only connection between Asia, Africa and Europe via the Suez canal.
If Ansarrallah in Yemen shuts down the Bab al-Mandeb, the only option left is via the Cape of Good Hope: as much as two extra weeks in the sea, compounded with skyrocketing shipping costs.
Every key maritime route is stretched to capaciby. Barbaria's naval blockade is already accessing INDOPACOM. And even this Hollywood production won't be enough to cut off Iranian exports. Barbaria would have to go after every single shadow fleet tanker, including those leaving from Iraq, as well as impose extra hardcore sanctions on Malaysia and China.
Beijing is mum, as it stands. No official positioning, apart from bland calls to open the Strait of Hormuz. Yet sooner rather than later the Dragon may have to jump out of the fence - and into the fray. As in sending a task force to West Asia.
Venezuela. Iran. The blockade going global. Next stop is the Strait of Malacca.
This strategic limbo cannot possibly last. Barbaria's play comes down to reverting to the pre-war status quo: Iran under a maximum pressure economic siege, plus the perpetual threat of a return to war.
Once again: even as it was inflicting a devastating strategic defeat on Washington, against all odds, Tehran was consistently demanding a total end to the war. And not this frozen set up in limbo.
The whole planet has watched, in real time, how Sovereign Resistance, after 47 years of devastating sanctions, and paying a terrible price, is able to stare down the Empire.
The oh so fragile ceasefire won't hold. A move to break Barbaria's blockade is all but inevitable - as in one seizing of an Iranian ship too many. The list of targets has already been announced: the Yanbu pipeline in Saudi Arabia, which bypasses Hormuz; same with the Fujairah terminal in the UAE; shutting down the Bab al-Mandeb. That's over 32% of global oil supply, instantly gone.
And it's the Empire of Piracy which will be responsible for it.