Martin Jay
Could NATO become almost exclusively a talk shop and nothing more?
Bombing Iran during the NATO summit in Ankara was surely a tactical move, in Trump's mind, to show everyone in the region that the U.S. is the dominant superpower. But it also sends a message to the Iranians that Trump is never serious about the 60-day MOU and that they shouldn't waste any more of their time with the diplomatic eloquence that is required. What's Trump's real game ? What are his immediate objectives in the region?
If we are to assume that he doesn't want peace as such, but really just the Straits of Hormuz open, he will need the full support of Netanyahu, who continues to stand tall over IDF troops in Lebanon fighting Iran's proxy there, Hezbollah. Or if he wants a second phase of the war, he will need allies in the region, which can't be the GCC countries.
In either scenario, having Recep Erdogan as a key ally who might at some point in the future have American F-35s could be useful. Turkey has a loathing of Israel, and along with Egypt and Pakistan, also has cordial relations with Iran.
Putting aside for one moment the worry that the Biden administration had with letting Turkey have the F-35s - that their technology could easily be sold to the Chinese or the Russians (two countries with which Turkey has good relations) - there are a host of reasons why Trump needs a buddy in NATO, and one which has an impressive military arsenal. But top of that list is to tackle an immediate threat which is coming from Israel, namely Netanyahu, who is out of control. Trump found out just a couple of weeks into the February 28th campaign against Iran that he had been duped by Bibi and that Iran cannot fall so easily - putting unprecedented costs on U.S. military resources, not to mention emboldening Iran to become a new fourth power in the world.
But the real pain came when, on the eve of putting together a peace deal with Iran, Netanyahu refused to pull his IDF troops out of Lebanon, or at the very least call a ceasefire. This act alone will be seen as one of treachery in Trump's mind, and his new proximity to Erdogan is all about showing how tipping "the balance of power in the region" (Netanyahu's words) towards Trump and his Muslim NATO partner gives the U.S. president the edge. Israel can't compete with Turkey's military, certainly not with F-35s. Yes, it's true that Turkey is a supporter of Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood and often calls for the destruction of the Israeli state. But this is hardly the point. Netanyahu's grave mistake was overstepping a line in the relationship with Trump in Lebanon, and now this leaves the Donald with no choice but to broaden his perspective on allies - all for the sole purpose of regaining power in the region via Israel. This is how far things have got out of hand. This is how far Trump is prepared to go to teach Bibi a lesson.
And so the NATO summit proved to be an excellent venue to parade Erdogan to the world as his new buddy, one who could be used as a rod for Netanyahu's back. Some might say we are witnessing a new dawn in America's relationship with Israel, as certainly almost everything is unprecedented. But it's as though Trump's patience has completely run out and he's beginning to think about his legacy: being the only U.S. president in history who supported a genocide in Gaza, got suckered in by Israel's BS over an Iran war, and who now looks completely ridiculous as a loser on a grand scale with Iran. Recently it was reported that Bibi wanted to come to Washington to meet with Trump to try and convince him that Iran now has nuclear bombs. It would seem this idea has been rebuffed by Trump's team, which has left the Israeli PM turning to his chums at CNN to set up some interviews to try and explain to the U.S. public who and what Erdogan stands for - a seemingly futile exercise, given that most Americans can't fathom the absolute basics of the Middle Eastern landscape, and such phrases as "Muslim Brotherhood" are going to faze them if not drive them towards changing channels. Is Trump bluffing over the F-35s to Turkey ? It's possible, of course, and he is just playing a game with Bibi to see if the Israeli PM can come to his senses and allow "Daddy" to run things. But the NATO summit only underlined how divided its members are on Iran and Ukraine, and how snared many EU leaders are over how to keep Trump happy. Many are confused how to proceed when he continues to threaten to take Greenland, after being so disappointed that not one EU member state supported Trump in his Iran War. Threatening while negotiating is classic Trump. It's his DNA, and it's all he knows, as diplomacy is not his thing at all. It's the same with Iran. The strikes the U.S. carried out are a sign of weakness, and the Iranians see this. Trump will probably not give Turkey the F-35s, but he may send U.S. troops to Greenland just to upset the Europeans and remind them who is Daddy (Rutte's term of endearment for him). The danger, of course, is that this shatters NATO unity altogether, and the organisation looks more like window dressing on the world stage, with corruption driving huge military spending and terrified leaders increasingly afraid of going to war. Could NATO become almost exclusively a talk shop and nothing more ? Someone needs to tell Bibi that Cyprus is not a NATO member.