Tim Kirby
With Iran's missiles now targeting UK bases, regional wars are synthesizing into one nuclear-risky world war.
There are many people who only believe in or write about what they like. Their opinions are not so much derived from facts but are an expression of what they want to see happen. I say this because I want to be clear that the merging of the wars in Iran and Ukraine is neither 'cool' nor something I desire, but as they say 'here we are' and things will surely only get worse. Over the last two weeks we have seen news headlines demonstrating an interweaving of the conflicts into one. This is more so than just presumed (or in the case of the EU and Ukraine overt) proxy support.
One can only speculate as to why, but Zelensky with great glee has claimed responsibility for targeting an Iranian cargo vessel. There is a presumption that this was done to appease Trump or somehow win favor or attention from Washington. Trump has shown bitter disdain for Zelensky, especially after their spat at the White House early in the American President's second term. But, we cannot forget that a president's personal feelings on an individual do not necessarily become reflected in U.S. foreign policy. George Bush Jr. had nothing but praise for Vladimir Putin, while the Deep State was orchestrating the ultimate destruction of Russia behind the scenes. The attack on the Iranian ship has been confirmed by both Western media and RT:
Iran has condemned a Ukrainian strike on a cargo ship in the Caspian Sea that killed one sailor and injured another. The Foreign Ministry summoned Ukraine's acting chargé d'affaires over the attack.
In a post on X on Saturday, Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky boasted about what he called "very strong results" from long-range strikes targeting "vessels used in military cargo shipments involving Iran, as well as a warship."
The Iranian Foreign Ministry condemned the attack, saying it "risks further fueling and expanding the flames of war." It urged other nations to take a "responsible stance toward this reckless action by the Ukrainian regime" and hold its leadership accountable.
At about the same time, the Iranians have declared that they can and may hit the UK. They shared what could become an infamous image for future generations about climbing the escalation ladder to WWIII - a map showing the range of Iran's strike capability. The key thing to note again is that Tehran wanted to make the point that they can hit the United Kingdom. This is in connection with the US attacking Iran via a British base, but perhaps there is more to this, because the U.S. has used plenty of foreign territory against Iran, but for some reason only the UK seemed marked for total destruction because of it. The City of London is a very special place indeed.
In the broader picture as time goes on the war in Ukraine and to an extent the one in Iran smells more-and-more like the vile streets of London and is even perhaps the last round of the 'Great Game' taking place in the 21st century. No one has been more enthusiastic for using Ukraine as one big suicide drone against Russia than the ever-rotating nosferatu that loom at 10 Downing Street. It was Boris Johnson who put the final nail in the coffin of millions of lives by destroying any sort of peace agreement back in 2022. But we should not forget that the birthplace of Zionism, the blood enemy of Iran, was the British Empire. And, at the very least the British owe the Iranians plenty of money.
Iran wants to make it clear that it can hit the UK, an interesting target indeed.
At the time of writing no one has yet to be blamed for the explosion(s) at the industrial facility in Essex, but if Parliament and their overloads want, this could be the casus belli for engaging Russia, Iran or both full scale and thus the start of a true WWIII. Tehran did just threaten London after all.
It is obvious that the enemies of Russia and Iran (and China) are essentially the same, however the conflicts seemed to be fairly compartmentalized until this strike by the 'Junkie Fuhrer' as Dmitry Medvedev calls him. Anyone with YouTube level knowledge of geopolitics could see there is a sort of soft or compartmentalized WWIII already happening as the West goes into decline and the Monopolar World buckles under its own tremendous bulk. But each 'front' in this conflict, including ones that were resolved quickly like Venezuela, seemed to be at least factually separate. Yes, the EU is leading the way on the Ukrainian front and the USA on the Persian one but there's tons of interplay behind the scenes, however ultimately they have remained separate conflicts despite this. Now, with this attack on Iran by Kiev it looks like these fronts may merge from officially separate ones to potentially turning into one big long arc along the western half of what Mackinder called the 'rimland' (the inter marginal crescent).
We also cannot ignore that Zelensky has attacked former supporter Turkey all while Erdogan's anti-Israel rhetoric only continues to heat up. Interestingly, Kiev's strike on Caspian oil infrastructure has a deep impact against seemingly neutral Kazakhstan and the United States. It was ultimately the critical infrastructure of these two countries that was effected. We also cannot forget that, although it is obvious where President Lukashenko's allegiances lie, and that his nation has not entered the war yet, Kiev has still managed to continuously murder innocent civilians in/around Belarus including the now infamous incident against a bus filled with children. The Belorussian side is convinced, that the attack on the bus was meant to provoke them into entering the war directly.
On the other side of the big global strife the Saudis have attacked the Houthis and the other pro-western regimes of the Gulf States are waking up to the fact that if the USA loses then so do they and are trying to counter Iran's actions to the best of their ability.
There is escalation happening everywhere across the 'rimland' except for Taiwan and the Korean Peninsula, probably to keep China from helping its like-minded neighbors too directly, or more importantly, too soon. Then again, the Russian rumor mill has it that the North Koreans are gathering an army of 50,000 volunteers to fight against Kiev in the Special Military Operation. This is not escalation in the east, but from the east for certain.
At the beginning of the Special Military Operation in Ukraine one could only hope and pray that something would change and that the West would go quietly into the Multipolar night one its own volution, but alas it has not. It is unclear whether Zelensky's will is at play or that of his handlers, but Kiev's ever growing attacks on third-parties in their war with Russia is only synthesizing the two major fights into one. We all remember how in the recent past the Iranians famouslyrejected Russian "help" in arming themselves, they have probably deeply reconsidered this position. If Zelensky is allowed to further attack Iran we will wake up to find ourselves no longer in a pseudo or soft WWIII but one that is very real and rock solid.
This broadening of conflict presents a danger as the rules of engagement are quite different in both conflicts. The Russians want to save the locals in Ukraine and thus they can't just 'nuke it'. The Iranians don't have nukes thus they trade missiles with the American navy and its various army bases in neighboring countries along with strikes on the source of Zionism in Israel. These are two very different games: one a mission to save locals from extinction from fascists created by the West, and the other a fight back against an unprovoked Zionist bombing campaign. Ukraine is being used as a proxy, protecting Europe from retaliation, whereas Iran is directly hitting the U.S. military and Israel directly. The key take away is that if Zelensky's authorization of anarchy, possibly planned and orchestrated by London and beyond continues, these two will merge into something truly horrific for all humanity as two wars with no immediate nuclear threat will merge into one with nukes at the ready on both sides. Regional conflicts are now synthesizing into WWIII and the dynamic of this unified war will be nuclear.