Martin Jay
The Ceuta border crisis wasn't just Rabat's doing; Israeli pressure on Spain over Gaza is the hidden hand.
The cat is finally out of the bag. While in recent days we have seen a flurry of Rabat-sponsored editorials which claim that Morocco had little to do with the influx of Moroccans into Ceuta, the more salient - if not nefarious - notion that Israel had more than just a hand in the matter is growing legs. And it's coming from both Spain and Israel itself. Respected analysts are saying quite bluntly that the entire Ceuta ruse was about punishing Spain for its support for Palestine and Gaza. On August 4th, the author argued that there was plenty of circumstantial evidence, if not odd coincidences, which pointed the finger at Israel - not to mention that its government and its PM would benefit hugely from such a stunt, which may well bring about a political dynamic in Madrid to give up the two enclaves it has on the Moroccan coast.
But now that speculation has gained some kudos, as even the Israeli press has stated in its editorials that Israel was behind the wile. These reports were followed by others in the Spanish press which supported the claims, with some even going as far as to refine "punishment" to "exert pressure" on Madrid to water down its current views and policies about Gaza.
And yet, even though the blueprint itself was probably not Rabat's, the elite in the Moroccan capital can't wash their hands of the matter and claim that there is no culpability on their side, given the depth, longevity and significance of a 60-year marriage with Israel and the benefits it reaps for the Kingdom.
In many ways, the signing of the Abraham Accords in December 2020 was not so much a significant moment indicating a new relationship, but more of a symbolic renewal of vows in a relationship which began in the 1960s and was more or less about protecting the monarch against internal or external coups. The threat towards Hassan II was from his own military, while today Rabat fears a revolution from its own people - largely its youth, who have not been the recipients in any way of Morocco's boom economy.
Since 2020, however, we have seen the relationship intensify and become much bolder and more open - like a couple once living in sin, walking out into the street and promenading their bond fearless of any scorn. The duplicity of a Moroccan king being the chairman of the Al Quds Committee while at the same time supporting Israel's genocide carried out largely against women and children no longer holds any stigma or raises any eyebrows in the Arab world, where more leaders are trying to replicate the same balancing act with the same finesse. It is not only Morocco that does this, but Jordan, Egypt, Turkey and perhaps most of all Saudi Arabia. The difference with the Moroccans is the genius of allowing its citizens to have mass protests against their own government in support of Palestine, which muddies the waters even more and defuses any excoriation by Western media. Even Moroccans themselves are confused.
Yet in this opaque area, have the issues become fogged also ? While most elites in the Arab world look to Israel as a security guarantor, Morocco - which takes this relationship to a new level - it would seem is being taken for a ride by Tel Aviv. In the midst of the genocide, Rabat was reported to have coughed up a billion dollars for Israeli spy satellite technology - hardly a modest amount of money for a developing country. With continuous arms spending since Donald Trump formally recognised Western Sahara as Moroccan land, is it not fair to ask: what exactly is Morocco getting out of advancing its relations with Israel ? The jewel in the crown surely is formal recognition of Western Sahara, and the ultimate gift that both Israel and the U.S. can give - swinging a vote in the UN General Assembly one day which grants Morocco full sovereignty - which makes perfect sense for the alliance to extend beyond its current 'protection' status.
But neither of those scenarios are likely to happen, which raises the poignant question: is taking Melilla and Ceuta a consolation prize, and is this what is being dangled in front of the King's acolytes' eyes?
All three partners - Trump, Bibi and Rabat - want to hurt Spain and extract a spoil of war from Madrid, and it's not hard to see what it could be: Spain giving up its "African colonies", which are only symbolic and are limited in how they serve Spain's interests. With Ceuta, however, comes a vast oceanic space of territory which is worth a billion times what price can be put on the head of each of its 84,000 citizens there. While it's true that Rabat is angry with Sanchez for enhancing relations with Spain and possibly allowing Western Saharan indigenous people to have Spanish passports, there is a bigger game at play here, as the Trump administration and Israel drool over the map of northern Morocco. But it's important to remember that it's not only Morocco which is struggling with the balancing act, but Spain too, as it struggles to even explain to itself - let alone the world - how it preaches about colonialism to Israel when it holds on dearly to these ludicrous, anachronistic outposts. The irony, which some might have overlooked, of course, is that for the first time ever, Melilla and Ceuta suddenly have a value and a purpose for both the Spanish and Moroccans - thanks largely to Israel. But we're still a long way from Fox News presenters actually finding them on a map of Africa.