October 10, 2026
The NATO-Russia proxy war in Ukraine is going into another round of negotiations.
A Ukrainian delegation is currently in Florida to talk with President Trump's negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner:
Zelenskyy's chief of staff, Kyrylo Budanov, and other top officials, including Rustem Umerov, Sergiy Kyslytsya and David Arakhamia, will also attend..
The main item in this round is a partial ceasefire with regards to energy and transport of agricultural products.
For months the Ukrainian military has attacked various refineries and oil transport hubs within Russia. The attacks are supported by U.S. intelligence. U.S. and British developed sea drones have been used to attack Russian ports in the Black Sea as well as ships transporting Russian oil products. After the attacks Russia has stopped its exports of diesel and other commodities.
Russia has responded in kind to Ukrainian strikes. Ukraine's harbors are blocked. The country can no longer export its agricultural products. Its energy resources are diminished. A Russian drone and missile attacked earlier today (again) destroyed electricity stations in Kiev. The city is currently under another large blackout. People living there will struggle to survive the winter.
Rejecting requests from President Trump, Ukraine has been unwilling to stop its attacks on Russian energy targets. It is seeing these as the only strategic lever it has to pressure Russia.
Russia is willing to agree to an energy ceasefire but demands that it includes the lifting of all energy related sanctions the U.S. and Europe have put up against it.
Global energy prices are currently high. President Trump wants lower diesel prices. An energy ceasefire could help to alleviate the current diesel crunch.
Another incentive for Trump and his negotiators to push towards a ceasefire is a potential deal about the non-Russian assets of the sanctioned Russian company Lukoil:
The ongoing negotiations to end the nearly five-year-long war between Russia and Ukraine now reportedly involve a multibillion-dollar oil deal that would benefit individuals with ties to top U.S. negotiators, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, The New York Times reported on Saturday.
The group seeking the reported deal includes Todd Boehly, an American investor who donated $2 million to President Donald Trump's political causes, and two Middle Eastern business executives that have done business with Witkoff or Kushner's families.
The deal would require approval from both the U.S. and Russia and would include a set of oil fields, refineries and gas stations around the world owned by Lukoil, one Russia's largest energy companies.
While incentives to stop all attacks on energy targets are there, they are unlikely to be strong enough to overcome political resistance.
The Ukrainian leadership is unwilling to concede anything to Russia. Its troops are losing on the battlefield. Its economy is in tatters. It is surviving on subsidies from Europe a large part of which are being skimmed off by the people ruling Ukraine. Their only hope to keep the money flowing is to continue the attacks.
President Trump may want to stop Ukrainian attacks on Russia but the lifting of sanctions would open him up to political attacks by anti-Russian Republicans and Democrats. The current European leadership is also against any relief for Russia. It will be difficult for Trump to press it to lift sanctions. Operational groups within the CIA and the Pentagon are in daily contact with Ukrainians and do not want to stop their aggression against Russia.
While Trump could pressure Ukraine to agree to ceasefire by, for example, withholding access to Starlink for Ukraine's military communication, it is unlikely that he is willing to take the political penalties that would come with taking that step.
Russia has no strong opinion about an energy ceasefire. Its supplies are not endangered. Its campaign to dismantle Ukraine's industrial and energy capacities is going well.
Only a guaranteed lifting of sanction would be a sufficient incentive for Russia it to stop its actions. But nobody is Moscow is expecting that Trump can and will deliver on that.
This article was originally published at Moon of Alabama.