Predictive History
As of this writing, the Houthis have struck Terminal 3 of King Khalid International Airport, forcing authorities to evacuate the airport. There is fear that this is a mass casualty event, and fifty ambulances have rushed to the scene.
Earlier this week, on Wednesday, Saudi authorities reported that a Houthi strike on the same airport killed three Saudi civilians, including a pilot. The Houthis have imposed both an aerial and naval blockade on the Saudis. They have attacked four major Saudi airports, and they have launched a ballistic missile against Saudi Arabia's Ghawar field, the world's largest oilfield. The Houthis are intending to cripple the Saudi Arabian economy to force a surrender. Saudi oil production is the lowest since 1990, and its production has fallen by at least a third since the start of the Iran conflict.
The Saudis have been in this position before. In the Yemeni civil war, the Saudis and their allies besieged the Houthis, and the United Nations reported that over 100,000 died in the ensuing famine. The UK-based NGO Save the Children estimated that 85,000 children under the age of five died because of the civil war.
The Houthis would not submit, and their attacks on Saudi oilfields forced the Saudis to seek peace terms on April 1, 2022. With the current strain on the Saudi economy, analysts are expecting the Saudi crown prince Mohammad bin Salman (MbS) to negotiate a peace. How could Saudi Arabia possibly hope to triumph when its oilfields, airports, and pipelines are so vulnerable to Houthi drones and ballistic missiles?
Unfortunately, the crown prince believes that now is the best opportunity to end the Houthi threat once and for all, and turn Saudi Arabia into a regional power.
