November 6, 2026
There seems to be little notice in the media that Ukraine is on the verge of a catastrophe. Its electricity network is on the border of systemic failure. The moral standing of its government within the Ukrainian population is breaking down.
While there has been lots of trouble with energy during the last winter the amount of the current disorder is on a different level.
For months now the Russian military has systematically dismantled critical points in the Ukrainian network. Kiev, which once had several combined heat and power plants, can no longer generate any of its needed electricity. Its sole supplies are now coming from far away nuclear power stations and are reaching the capitol through a few major switching station.
There are now no days left without severe power failures (machine translation):
The power outage is currently worst in Kyiv and Dnipro. In the capital, subway trains were stopped today due to power surges.
"This is the second instance of power supply problems in the metro in the last month, something that hasn't happened since the war began. The grid simply can't cope - there's simply not enough power for all consumers. People turned on their kettles and the metro went dark," says Yuriy Korolchuk, an analyst at the Institute for Strategic Studies.
Energy market sources also report widespread problems at all of the capital's combined heat and power plants (CHPs): Darnitska, CHP-5, and CHP-6, which were targeted by Russia. Several experts told us that generation at these plants has been halted.
Volodymyr Omelchenko, director of energy programs at the Razumkov Center, stated that all Kyiv thermal power plants, including the Trypilska Thermal Power Plant, are "effectively destroyed," meaning the capital is now almost entirely dependent on electricity from the unified power grid. However, the Russians are targeting the substations supplying power to the Kyiv region. A similar situation is occurring in Dnipro, where the Prydniprovska Thermal Power Plant, the region's largest power generation source, was significantly damaged.
The situation is already dire and it is not even winter:
With the onset of minimum negative temperatures, residential buildings in Ukraine will be without electricity for three to five days.
This opinion was voiced by the head of the Union of Consumers of Public Utilities of Ukraine, Oleg Popenko, during a telethon broadcast.
"The forecasts are the most pessimistic. [..] We won't have power for hours, but for days. When temperatures drop to minus five degrees, consumption (of electricity - Ed.) will increase so much that power may only be on for half an hour or an hour," the expert predicts.
Amidst the coming cold critical infrastructure depending on electricity - transport, water and sewage - is likely to fail.
Kiev is a central point in Ukraine's electricity network. Several provinces depend on its network. When Kiev shuts down they fail too. Some have already experienced special emergency shutdowns (machine translation):
Today, special emergency shutdown schedules (SES) were introduced in two regions of the country at once - Poltava and Sumy oblasts.
Poltavaoblenergo and Sumyoblenergo reported this.
"The SGAV or special SGAV is a set of measures aimed at quickly reducing the load on the power grid on a significant scale. These measures involve shutting down 35-110 kV lines, as well as transformers and busbar sections at 35-110 kV substations. They are implemented or cancelled by a special command from Ukrenergo. It is impossible to inform consumers about the duration of the outage when using SGAV or SGAV," Sumyoblenergo noted.
It's worth noting that "regular" emergency shutdown schedules have long been in use in Ukraine (usually after hostile attacks on the power grid and significant damage to facilities). However, the SGAV is a last resort.
Unlike "regular" emergency shutdowns, SGAVs involve the shutdown of critical infrastructure facilities, as well as consumers who use "their own" electricity imported from Europe.
Moreover, the SGAV must be started very quickly - within three minutes after the command from the Ukrenergo dispatcher (during normal emergency shutdowns, 15 minutes are given for this).
While last year's attacks had reduced the generation capacity in Ukraine, its redundant network still allowed to switch capacity around.
Now, after the shutdown of Ukraine's metallurgical industries over the year, Ukraine has a theoretical excess of energy provided by its nuclear power stations. But its network has lost the ability to balance the electricity input with the natural peaks of consumption. In consequence the nuclear power stations had to lower their output. They were designed to deliver basic loads at a constant level. They can not be used to handle the ups and downs of demand.
This year the campaign by the Russians to paralyze Ukraine by destroying its electricity network seems to work. The reason for the success is twofold.
The number drones and missiles used in the air raids have multiplied. It is common now that one attack wave uses hundreds of long range drones and dozens of missiles. A year ago a hit by one of two Iskander missiles on a power stations was news worthy. Nowadays some 20 or so arrive every night. For lack of interceptors Ukraine's air defense has been reduced to a few machine gun crews. While these still claim the unlikely success rate of 50% against drones they can do nothing against missiles. Another large scale attack against Ukraine's electricity network is expected tonight.
Meanwhile the public and media are kept busy with several scandals.
Each Ukrainian military unit has a "pit" in which it illegally imprisons, tortures (and sometimes kills) renitent soldiers. Two days ago a protest against one these secret prisons near Kiev led to a scandal. While some prisoners were sent to a hospital the protesters were arrested and will likely themselves end up in jail.
Another diversion erupted yesterday when the anti-corruption forces NABU arrested a high ranking officer of the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU):
Now we have a NABU investigation into the SBU for running 52 illegal call centers, facilitating drug trafficking, torture, kidnapping, abuse and counterfeiting in Ukraine and Europe.
As a result of the NABU investigation the deputy head of the department for protecting national statehood of the SBU, Major General Sergei Duka, has been detained.
Searches were also conducted at the office of the first deputy head of the Main Directorate "D" for Protecting National Statehood of the SBU, Alexander Kovalchuk, the head of the Main Directorate for Internal Security of the SBU, Colonel Anton Kravchuk, and unnamed police officers.
While the frontline of the war of attrition in Ukraine sees little movement the state of Ukraine is falling apart.
Reprinted with permission from Moon of Alabama.