Martin Jay
Graft, not Iran or gas prices, drove 90% of midterm voters to Democrats, Martin Jay writes.
The lessons from Trump's defeat at the polls in the midterms are coming in thick and fast. Yet in the past few days some myths have also been busted which might determine who will become president in 2028 and what the fate is of Trump's MAGA base. Contrary to what J.D. Vance and others have said, parroting what Trump claimed - that it was the Iran war and, more specifically, gas prices which pushed Americans towards the Democrats - in fact, even higher on that list of reasons why they voted in the way they did was corruption. Graft accounted for 90 percent of the reasons why voters gave the Democrats both houses, even above the cost of living or the Iran war, according to an exit poll which interviewed 80,000 Americans.
Trump's own brand of corruption is extraordinary for many quirks, but the one thing which makes it stand out the most is how brazen it is. It is literally in your face. Trump can't help but advertise it, rather than what some might assume would be a prudent move in keeping it under wraps. And it is not only how brashly it is carried off, with hundreds of stocks being bought an hour before he makes an announcement, but also how absurd it is at times, with Trump's children personally getting Pentagon contracts for military equipment, some of which might be sent to the Middle East. The rush to the trough was so fast and so raucous that it seems to have broken records. But the simple truth is that the foul smell from it all has affected Americans and shaken their faith in the system. Trump, his family and his coterie all filling their pockets through this level of repugnant graft has not been received well by a great number of Americans who can't even fill their cars with gas - and might be the starters' pistol for a new inertia from Democrats to go for Trump and his circle. Or even Republicans. Indeed, a Republican who is tasked with overseeing such legal matters has already released a two-word statement which media have reported. "Lawyer up" was Robert Garcia's advice to Trump. Is the Republican party itself also thinking about its own future, and worried that if it doesn't take a stand on Trump graft, then the 2028 presidential election will follow with the same theme and pattern as the midterms, leaving voters no choice other than to vote Dem on the basis of what they believe is a vote for ethics?
Trump clearly thinks, though, that he is immune from any such opprobrium. His arrogance and show of impunity would suggest that he has a lot to threaten those who want to go after his loot which he has made off with. If any genuine corruption investigation is to have any salience, then it should also have the legal powers to impound and seize any cash which was made while Trump abused his power in office. But he may well have misread the reality, as he did with the Iran war, gas prices and his insane tariffs strategy which is pulling the American economy down. His recent delusional post on Truth Social about cancelling a whole swathe of policies worried a lot of people briefly until it was revealed to be fake. But a more recent post threatening to veto absolutely everything that Congress sends his way wasn't - and gives a clue of just how childish, petulant and insecure he really is, and how he isn't really serious about cooperating with Democrats. If they decide to go ahead with corruption investigations in order to take back Trump's newly acquired wealth, then certainly we can expect a stagnant two years when nothing moves, either from him or from Congress. Trump is probably thinking he survived the Epstein scandal, which to some extent is true, as the number of top Democrats implicated in it gives him some protection. But the corruption of market manipulation and arms deals carried out by his children is too open, all documented and good to go. And what's more to the point is that there is no sign that he has stopped or will even stall the graft now that he has been exposed for it. Even the thick-skinned Donald can see the writing on the wall: that this embezzlement and abuse of power on a scale we have never seen before is going to bite him on the nappy at some point. Lawyer up indeed.
What will be interesting is to see what the Dems' strategy is in the coming weeks. Will they go for the low-hanging fruit in the initial days, like Kimberly Guilfoyle, or will they put all of their focus on the big fish ? Jared Kushner will certainly be a target, as, although he is more subtle than his father-in-law, he has some very high-stakes investments hanging in the balance in the Middle East which need looking at. And what will Trump's reaction be when he sees the net drawing in ? One reason why the Democrats have not rushed in with the graft enquiry is that they probably want the next six weeks to pass without Trump nuking Iran, which he is perfectly capable of doing. In this window, in theory, he can still hit Iran, as it won't be until January when Congress can formally block the money - in exactly the same way the Vietnam war ended. Democrats won't want Trump's new Iran war to be one which they will have no choice but to fund, as it has got out of hand so quickly, so will bide their time. The Iranians also understand this, which is why they are playing the coolest hand there is at the table. Tehran is looking for Trump to fall on his sword, and so far their strategy has paid off massively. January will be the month of the long knives, and Trump might well need more than just lawyers to defend him.