Martin Jay
What makes these talks so much harder is not only Zelensky's stubbornness but also business deals which have been made and are in jeopardy.
Who really has Ukraine's long-term interests at heart ? And what can we expect from the Ukraine-Russia talks in Abu Dhabi, if anything ? Once you have calmed down and stopped laughing at the comedy of the EU gate-crashing the peace talks in the UAE between Russia and Ukraine, these are at least two salient questions you might ask yourself. Not much has changed since the last round of talks earlier in the year, except perhaps that Trump lost the midterms and is conscious that the Democrats, when they begin Congress in January, will probably attempt to push through more military aid to Ukraine - almost certainly one of the most corrupt countries in the world.
Perhaps it is the Dems who are responsible for Zelensky's extraordinary level of delusion, as he has nothing to offer in terms of any concession to the talks - certainly not the remaining parts of the four Russian-speaking regions which Russian forces control. Certainly EU leaders are responsible for Zelensky's stubbornness, as it is they who have even more invested in a long-term war in Russia which guarantees their hold on power and their corrupt deals ready and waiting with the industrial military complex. For them, as they laughingly govern their own imploding economies, they only see one option for the future, which is a war with Russia - and peace in Ukraine would derail that plan.
And so in many respects the talks seem rather pointless, as Zelensky lays out his demands - a ceasefire which would give his troops time to rearm, an energy ceasefire on power infrastructure, prisoner swaps to be made as soon as possible, and security guarantees for the future - but offers no concessions at all from his side. Is this a world record in peace negotiations between warring countries ? How does Zelensky arrive with nothing to put on the table?
EU leaders, of course.
But even without this extraordinary arrogance of Ukraine's caretaker President, the talks at least provide the pretext for Trump's latest plan to be presented - even though we don't know what it is, as it is shrouded in secrecy. According to Jared Kushner, there needs to be a totally fresh new approach to getting a peace deal, and so Trump has come up with a plan which is broader and goes beyond Ukraine's borders - which might have been the basis of secret talks held between Putin and Kushner when they, along with Witkoff, met in Moscow just recently. Is there a new international peace deal which Trump might think will get him a Nobel Peace Prize, which is an umbrella for NATO covering other countries in the region which have historical links to Russia but have aspirations to become EU member states ? Could this new deal ensure that these countries never join NATO and never have NATO military installations on their turf ? Presumably, if Trump could get those countries - along with Ukraine - to sign it, this might give Russia some confidence about moving forward with a deal with Ukraine. This must be the thinking within the Trump-Putin hemisphere, although it is hard to see Witkoff and Kushner pulling it off, as they have no experience in international diplomacy and come across as, at best, out of their depth.
Yet we shouldn't think, on the other hand, that the talks are completely pointless. At least there is a token gesture of dialogue between Russia and Ukraine - unlike, say, between the UK and Russia (where the former kicked out the Russian defence attaché in 2022 when the Ukraine war started). Even Britain's new defence minister recently made the point that dialogue is needed, if for nothing else than to ensure miscalculation can be avoided. And so we have dialogue and Trump's new blueprint on the table, but Ukraine needs to lose more ground on the front line this winter and more people need to freeze to death in Kiev for Zelensky to really come to the table with something to offer. In the meantime we have the farce of peace talks which replaces anything genuine and meaningful, which some people would argue is better than nothing.
What makes these talks so much harder, though, is not only Zelensky's stubbornness but also business deals which have been made and are in jeopardy, and those which could be made. Kushner and Witkoff have to always bear in mind the massive land grabs that U.S. firms, owned by BlackRock, made in the agricultural sector, who borrowed money from EU banks to complete them. If peace comes to Ukraine and Zelensky has to stand down, the worry is that a new political elite will annul these deals, and Trump must be wary of this. In addition to those dirty deals which reek of corruption on a grand scale, Witkoff and Kushner (sounds almost like a comedy duet, like Laurel and Hardy, no?) also have their own pockets to fill and will be looking for incentives and opportunities in Ukraine in any post-conflict period - and so are actually not part of any solution but really part of the problem. Corruption rules. It always will in Ukraine. And for the EU to turn up at the talks when they were not invited shows you all there is to know about how rotten this country is, and how much of a failed superstate the EU always was.