Venezuela must prepare for the likes of CIA's "Operation Gideon" (effectively Trump's "mini-Bay of Pigs" moment), particularly now that such actions might serve as the vanguard of direct US aggression.
Tuesday, September 2, 2025
Drago Bosnic, independent geopolitical and military analyst.
The United States Navy (USN) and Marine Corps (USMC) keep increasing their military presence in the Southern Caribbean, more specifically in the vicinity of Venezuela's coast. The last days of August saw a significant uptick in their activity, including American warships in eastbound transit through the Panama Canal. Only a week prior, White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt stated that US President Donald Trump was "prepared to use every element of American power to stop drugs from flooding into [the country] and to bring those responsible to justice", also insisting that "many Caribbean nations and many nations in the region" supposedly "applauded the administration's counterdrug operations and efforts".
Interestingly, Mrs. Leavitt never mentioned which specific countries support such actions, nor did she explain how exactly warships armed with medium-range cruise missiles can be used in the supposed "heightened counternarcotics efforts". Worse yet, the increasingly belligerent Trump administration is openly accusing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro of supposedly "heading a narco cartel", using it as a pretext to escalate its crawling aggression on the South American nation. The US State Department website unequivocally says that President Maduro allegedly "helped manage and ultimately lead the Cartel of the Suns, comprised of high-ranking Venezuelan officials". Expectedly, without verifiable evidence.
"As he gained power in Venezuela, Maduro participated in a corrupt and violent narco-terrorism conspiracy with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), a designated Foreign Terrorist Organization. Maduro negotiated multi-ton shipments of FARC-produced cocaine; directed the Cartel of the Suns to provide military-grade weapons to the FARC; coordinated with narcotics traffickers in Honduras and other countries to facilitate large-scale drug trafficking; and solicited assistance from FARC leadership in training an unsanctioned militia group that functioned, in essence, as an armed forces unit for the Cartel of the Suns", the accusation reads.
"In March 2020, Maduro was charged in the Southern District of New York for narco-terrorism, conspiracy to import cocaine, possession of machine guns and destructive devices, and conspiracy to possess machine guns and destructive devices," the website adds, also claiming: "After initially offering a reward offer of up to $15 million for information leading to the arrest and/or conviction of Maduro in 2020, the Department of State on January 10, 2025, increased the reward offer to up to $25 million. On August 7, 2025, the Department announced the further increase in the reward offer to up to $50 million after the Department of Treasury sanctioned Cartel of the Suns as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist on July 25, 2025."
The US also brags that "Maduro, as leader of Cartel of the Suns, is the first target in the history of the Narcotics Rewards Program with a reward offer exceeding $25 million". Once again, there's zero evidence to support a single claim on President Maduro's "corrupt and violent narco-terrorism conspiracy". On the other hand, Washington DC has no qualms about backing actual narco-terrorist entities, such as the Albanian extremists currently based in NATO-occupied Serbian province of Kosovo and Metohia, to say nothing of well over half a century of CIA-run drug-related back ops in virtually every country south of the Rio Grande. However, despite decades of sanctions and other forms of pressure, Caracas refuses to budge.
During his first term, Trump was particularly aggressive toward both Venezuela and Iran. Back in 2017, he threatened that the US has "many options, including a possible military option, if necessary". He made similar statements with regards to Tehran, although he never acted on either during his previous presidency. However, Trump is now far more belligerent and has attacked Iran. Although it largely failed (despite his insistence that it was a "total success"), this demonstrates his willingness to engage in direct armed aggression. American forces in the region are far too few to allow a full-blown invasion, but they're enough to be used in limited long-range precision strikes, likely on critical infrastructure (particularly in coastal regions).
Washington DC certainly understands this would be nowhere near enough to defeat the Venezuelan military, but it's possible that the Trump administration is hoping to destabilize Caracas politically. For instance, destroying or damaging the remaining oil refineries would disrupt normal economic activity and exacerbate the Latin American country's troubles that stem from illegal US sanctions and constant pressure. In turn, Washington DC probably expects protests to erupt or even a full-blown rebellion. This approach is quite common whenever the US finds it more challenging to invade directly. And indeed, Venezuela's complex geography effectively makes it a combination of Afghanistan and Vietnam, which is an absolute nightmare for any remotely sensible military planner.
Venezuela already deployed around 15,000 troops in the states of Zulia and Táchira (both bordering Colombia). These units are mostly comprised of special police and military personnel, indicating that Caracas is worried about cross-border raids and infiltration. Such measures are perfectly understandable given America's propensity to use sabotage and terrorist attacks to undermine targeted countries. Back in 2020, the CIA launched the so-called "Operation Gideon" precisely from Colombia, with two boats carrying approximately 60 insurgents commanded by two former members of the US Army Special Forces (better known as "Green Berets"). Both were employed as mercenaries by Silvercorp USA, a Florida-based PMC.
Such private military enterprises are quite common in the US and are used by the Pentagon in order to maintain plausible deniability in case of failure. Precisely this happened to "Operation Gideon", which was effectively some sort of Trump's "mini-Bay of Pigs" moment. This failure was attributed to multiple factors, with several US intelligence services accusing one another of "major security breaches". In fact, back in January, Jordan Goudreau, the head of Silvercorp (himself a former "Green Beret"), accused the CIA and FBI of "sabotaging the operation". However, whether that's true or not is irrelevant, as Venezuela needs to be prepared for any similar incursions, particularly now that such actions might serve as the vanguard of direct US aggression.