Martin Jay
The USAID move by Trump is a polite signal to Zelensky. Your time is up.
What is USAID and what has it become a minor obsession with Donald Trump and Elon Musk? From its title you would be fooled into thinking it was an aid agency and nothing more. In fact, when JFK created it in the 60s it probably was simply that - a tool of the U.S. government to get vital aid to the most troubled corners of the world. But in recent times, USAID has taken on a role more sinister. These days it does the work of an intelligence agency which interferes in the internal politics of countries whose leaders the U.S. wants to topple, organizing underground campaigns and more recently funding NGOs and fake news outfits on a grand scale.
USAID is of course political. Traditionally it seems to have been a tool more of the Democrats than the Republicans who have brought all of their absurd woke values to it so that now it funds sex change operations in poor countries along with LGBT programs. USAID is still an aid agency and it is true to say much of its work is about delivering vital aid to countries in Africa or those who have suffered under the hands of leaders which the U.S. would describe as 'tyrants' like Assad in Syria. But it is this duplicitous role of being an aid agency and using its presence and staff as a tool for more nefarious work such as spying or even openly funding hundreds of fake news outfits which is really the problem.
Naturally a big part of the recent row which saw Trump shut it down is to do with Ukraine. Out of its annual 40 bn USD budget it gave a whopping 14bn to Ukraine in 2023 for a whole host of activities but largely financing fake news outfits - some media outlets which already existed and some which were created on the back of the spending spree. Trump of course sees that their work is vital in keeping the Ukraine war going as their reporting retains a positive patina of how the war is going and continues to legitimize caretaker President Zelensky's period in office. The impact of pulling the plug on these propaganda outlets will be significant both in Ukraine and in the West. For a long time, Ukraine was largely winning the media war while its army took defeat after defeat on the battle field. This scenario allowed western politicians, particularly in the UK, to brazenly lie to the broader public while their officials leant more on more on journalists in London to keep the narrative alive. Where did most of those UK journalists go to get their raw material? Ukraine media of course.
Trump's move will also have a real impact on Zelensky. He must now know that everything is turning against him and the best case scenario he can hope for is that Trump allows him to stay in power as long as he calls presidential elections. One of the reasons why Trump's 24-hours promise of a ceasefire has not happened is that the Russians have pointed out through their channels to Trump's people that Putin will not sign anything with Zelensky as long as he is not the legitimate president of Ukraine. What's the point in the two leaders having a telephone call when the basics are not in place?
The USAID move by Trump is a polite signal to Zelensky. Your time is up. Negotiate now and you might even be regarded well in history by your own people. If there is a possibility of Zelensky agreeing to a deal, whereby he gets to remain president, it may well be that no talks of any kind are necessary although it is interesting to note that Zelensky had already arranged an interview with Piers Morgan in London to casually weave into an interview that he is finally ready to talk to Putin.
All of this is linked to the USAID move. The decision by Trump to throw the lever is of course a recalibration of who gets to run the aid organization and under what remit. But it is also a near genius ruse by him in his first few days in office which turns up the heat on Zelensky which coincides with the U.S. president asking for mineral rights as guarantees for further support from the U.S. The USAID scandal each day sheds light on how the democrats abused the 60bn dollar budget from regime change to spying, from NGO empowerment to fake news - even to the point that the BBC was exposed for having its finger in the pie with its own international charity being a beneficiary. Trump might not necessarily block U.S. funding of the Ukraine war if he doesn't get a deal with Putin. Indeed there are a number of reports from top analysts who are already speculating that he might even keep the tap open. But the point is that he needs to show Zelensky that he is now running the show now and everything must point towards him being omnipotent on all levels, even with business. The Art of the Deal.