By Larry C. Johnson
Sonar21
April 10, 2026
Here is the non-news news flash up front - The alleged ceasefire between the United States and Iran is kaput. While there has been no official announcement stipulating that it is over, trust me, it is over. The copium in the Trump administration in particular, and in Washington, DC in general, is ridiculous... Proclamations of a great military victory over Iran, without one shred of evidence that the US achieved any strategic objectives other than inspiring Iran to take control of the Strait of Hormuz and place the world economy in a supply-chain chokehold.
Both Iran and Pakistan, the intermediary in the ceasefire, insist that the Trump administration accepted Iran's 10-point as a workable basis for negotiation:
- U.S. commitment to non-aggression - A formal guarantee that the United States (and Israel) will not launch further attacks on Iran, Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq.
- Continued Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz - Iran retains sovereignty and primary coordination of maritime traffic through the strait, with a "regulated" or "secure transit protocol" for safe passage of ships.
- Acceptance of Iran's nuclear enrichment rights - Explicit US and international recognition of Iran's right to enrich uranium for its civilian nuclear program.
- Lifting of all primary U.S. sanctions on Iran - Removal of direct bilateral economic sanctions imposed by the United States.
- Lifting of all secondary sanctions - Elimination of sanctions on third countries and entities that do business with Iran.
- Termination of all United Nations Security Council resolutions against Iran - Cancellation of existing UNSC sanctions and resolutions targeting Iran.
- Termination of all IAEA Board of Governors resolutions against Iran - End to International Atomic Energy Agency resolutions and oversight measures related to Iran's nuclear program.
- Payment of compensation / war reparations to Iran - Financial compensation or reconstruction aid for damages caused by the US-Israeli military campaign.
- Release of all frozen Iranian assets - Unfreezing of Iranian funds and assets held abroad (including those in US or European banks).
- US military withdrawal from the Middle East (and end to attacks on Iran's allies) - Withdrawal of US combat forces from regional bases, plus a ceasefire extending to Iran's "Axis of Resistance" allies (including halting Israeli operations in Lebanon against Hezbollah, and ending hostilities in other regional fronts).
The initial reaction among Trump's Zionist supporters and the Netanyahu government was a combination of shock and fury. The push back started immediately on Tuesday night and by Wednesday morning, the Trump administration insisted that it agreed to a different - yet undefined - set of 10-points. Israel made certain that the negotiations would fail by launching a vicious, murderous bombing of central and southern Lebanon.
So how did we get into this mess ? The New York Times article, How Trump Took the U.S. to War With Iran, has received a lot of attention because it largely lays the blame at the feet of Bibi Netanyahu and his Mossad chief. The piece portrays Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as the driving force behind US involvement. Netanyahu had lobbied intensively for months for a major joint assault on Iran. A pivotal February 11, 2026, meeting at the White House - featuring a highly classified presentation by Netanyahu in the Situation Room - helped shift Trump from hesitation or limited options toward authorizing large-scale strikes alongside Israel.
In the months preceding the February 11 meeting, Netanyahu repeatedly pressed the Trump administration for US support for strikes, framing them as essential to neutralize Iran's nuclear program, ballistic missiles, and regional influence. Israeli officials conveyed that Israel was prepared to act unilaterally if necessary, creating a sense of urgency or inevitability for the US. On February 11, Netanyahu arrived at the White House for discussions that included a detailed briefing on Iran's threats. The nearly three-hour session covered potential attack timelines, the risks of ongoing US-Iran diplomatic talks (which Netanyahu sought to undermine), and the benefits of military action. Trump and his team received intelligence and arguments emphasizing the need for decisive force.
Now let me read the tea leaves... I think the timing of the publication of this article is part of the Washington ritual of identifying the scapegoat or scapegoats for a policy that has run off the rails. JD Vance and, to a lesser extent, Marco Rubio are presented as the two sane voices that tried to persuade Donald Trump NOT to attack Iran. A close third in this regard was General Dan Caine, but the NY Times report paints him as a relatively weak man, afraid to challenge the President.
Who gets the blame ? Pete Hegseth. When the US attack ramps back up later this week, and Iran continues to pummel US military bases in the Gulf, the critical economic infrastructure of the Gulf arabs, and Israel, a time of reckoning will come when Trump will be forced to admit that the US cannot defeat Iran and that the cost of continuing the war will be devastating to the US economy and Republican political prospects in the fall.
This article was originally published on Sonar21.
Larry C. Johnson is a former analyst at the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency. He is the co-owner and CEO of BERG Associates, LLC (Business Exposure Reduction Group).
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