Pepe Escobar
From Tehran's point of view, that's a whole new ball game. They survived everything that not one, but two nuclear powers threw at them. They have no trust whatsover about anything coming from Barbaria.
At the supremely irrelevant G7 in Evian, the Emperor of Barbaria proclaimed to the room - including three full BRICS members - that "I'm the Boss". No irony intended.
So let's examine the "Boss" MoU between Iran and the US, which he spins as his (italics mine) deal ("I've ended 10 wars"). Well, it's not a deal: it's a MoU, at best an electronically signed promise to engage in talking. And it does not end the war that he (italics mine) launched on February 28.
Whatever antics take place in Geneva this Friday, the Barbaria Maestro won't really be signing the MoU. This is a play for time, to appease the oil markets and the bond markets, and to - covertly - weaponize a ceasefire framework. Inbuilt of course there will be some trade "relief" - as in the Strait of Hormuz more or less back in business.
At best the war on Iran and the broader imperial chessboard move to destabilize West Asia as a key front in the Big War against the Russia-China strategic partnership will continue in slower motion, with extra plausible deniability.
A mere glimpse at the non-stop hysteria across the Beltway reveals that the rarefied plutocracy who really runs the show in the US has absolutely no interest in any sort of peace with Iran. Grandmaster Lavrov's maxim always rules: the US is non-agreement capable.
What prevails, for the moment, are pedestrian imperatives. Team Trump needs the Strait of Hormuz - even with Iran charging maintenance/environmental/security fees - open to stabilize global energy markets.
Moreover, the GCC petro-monarchies - via mediator Pakistan and directly via Qatar and Saudi Arabia - made it very clear to Washington that they simply cannot afford a new war escalation.
In realpolitik terms, it's clear that Team Trump - and the ruling US plutocracy - will never accept the core of Iran's 14-point terms: sanctions lifted across the board; formal non-interference in Iranian sovereignty; end of all wars against the Axis of Resistance; and, following the money, full payment of war reparations.
What we will have is "talks" extending all the way to possibly the 22nd century while sanctions are not erased by the Zionist-controlled US Congress, plus serial US vetoes in the UN Security Council.
What the "Boss" that "ended 10 wars" gets in the short term is the simulacrum of victory: an arrangement masking a massive strategic defeat.
Iran-Russia-China: unbreakable
Forget about the people who run the imperial show admitting that Iran has managed, via deterrence, to smash US domination of West Asia and position itself as a top regional power and an emerging global power, fully supported by the absolute majority of the Global South.
From now on what should be expected is at best a wobbly, hybrid, somewhat managed calibrated turbulence - complete with serial provocations and covert ops: Maximum Pressure Light, keeping Tehran under full alert (not that they're bothered about it; they are ready) and ideally forcing further concessions.
Yet if the Barbarians believe that will weaken the Iranian strategic partnership with Russia-China, reality will spell otherwise.
China especially, but also Russia, were deep behind the mediation efforts by Pakistan to find some sort of US-Iran accomodation. Ghalibaf is now in charge of deepening China-Iran strategic relations. Both Beijing and Moscow are fully aware that the US containment obsession - controlling energy checkpoints - is directed against them and against Eurasia integration.
So in the end the kabuki of endlessly debated 14‑points, fake "ceasefires", and signing of the MoU also works as a giant info ops: a sign to all markets and gullible public opinion that Barbaria is actually aiming for peace.
Then there's the nuclear obsession - and we will see clearly what Team Trump really wants when the 60-day negotiations start, according to the MoU.
The American "prohibition" of enrichment translates as a direct message to players such as Turkiye, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Japan and even Germany: if any of you cross the nuclear threshold outside of the US-imposed framework, you will be in trouble.
Now let's follow the money. Yes, it's essentially a trap. The $12 billion - half of the $24 billion - that should be released in the first phase of the negotiations will certainly flow through Qatari, Omani and possibly Saudi banks: that offers the US Treasury non-stop surveillance and access into Iran's offshore banking architecture. Of course the leadership in Tehran is fully aware of it, and there will be plenty of subterranean financial plays in effect.
Sovereignty, patience - and a finger on the trigger
So what will happen next ? Mostly a frozen war. Not deep freeze. Strait of Hormuz back in business will mean oil dropping to as low as $75 a barrel. Release of the $12 billion. They start discussing what will be essentially a JCPOA 2.0 lite - in Geneva or most likely Islamabad. This may go on, in acrimonious terms, all the way to the mid-terms in the US. After that, all bets are off.
Tehran is concentrating on the positives immediately after the signing of the MoU. Oil sales will be back starting this weekend. Perhaps some sanction exemptions - which will include banking, transportation, and insurance, facilitating exports. An Iranian supertanker has already left Chabahar port and passed through the US blockade with no hassle.
The "Boss" is betting that once oil is back in free flow, energy prices fall, markets somewhat relax, and inflation also falls, the political cost of the massive strategic defeat He is responsible for will disappear from public view. And of course there will be a whole array of fresh distractions for the galleries - from Cuba and Greenland to those easily flogged EUro mutts.
The "Boss" masterplan, in a nutshell: buy time; declare Mission Accomplished; and pray that one will scream "Strategic Disaster!"
From Tehran's point of view, that's a whole new ball game. They survived everything that not one, but two nuclear powers threw at them. They survived, even stronger than before, with their national cohesion proudly on display for all the world to see. And they are making no meaningful concessions.
On the contrary: they are the masters of the Strait of Hormuz. No turning back. They have no trust whatsover about anything coming from Barbaria. Yet they will continue to exercize extreme patience. Coupled with a no fear finger on the trigger.