April 20, 2026
In yesterday's summarization of the state of the war on Iran I had warned that the announced ceasefire and re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz was standing on a fragile base:
After the announcement of the original ceasefire the U.S. [had] announced a blockade of all shipping to, from, and related to Iran. Earlier today Iran had hinted that it will close the Bab-al Mandeb entry into the Red Sea should the U.S. blockade persist.
It is jet unknown if, how and when the issue of the blockade is to be solved. Should the U.S. be unwilling to lift it, the conflict is sure to re-escalate.
Meanwhile U.S. President Donald Trump was all over social media pretending that the conflict with Iran had been resolved ( archived):
President Donald Trump declared Friday that Iran has agreed to virtually all his demands to end its nuclear program forever and said that talks to finalize the deal, "probably" held this weekend, "should go very quickly."
In a flurry of social media posts and media interviews, Trump said the United States "will work with Iran" at what he called "a leisurely pace" - with no need for American ground troops - to retrieve all of its buried highly enriched uranium and turn it over to the U.S. He said Iran would receive no money for agreeing to an "unlimited" halt to all nuclear activities.
With U.S. help, Trump said, Iran was removing all sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz - which Tehran, earlier in the day, said it would reopen to commercial shipping. He said Iran has agreed "never to close" the waterway again.
Trump's flurry of positive claims lifted the stock market while oil prices slumped.
That may well have been its sole purpose:
BREAKING: Just 20 minutes before Trump's announcement that the Strait of Hormuz was open, massive trades hit the market.
Investors sold a combined 7,990 lots of Brent crude futures, a $760 million bet that oil would go down.
These orders were much larger than anything else at the time.
The traders made huge gains.
Soon after Trump's victory jump Iranian officials stepped in to counter his claims ( archived):
Iranian officials did not confirm most of Mr. Trump's claims and disputed several of them. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran's top negotiator and the speaker of its Parliament, said on social media Friday evening that Mr. Trump made seven claims in one hour, all of which were false.
It was not immediately clear which claims he was referring to, but Mr. Ghalibaf said the United States would not make progress in negotiations with what he described as lies.
Despite the NY Times saying that it was not immediately clear which claims Ghalibaf was referring to. he had indeed responded in detail:
1- The President of the United States made seven claims in one hour, all seven of which were false.
2- They did not win the war with these lies, and they will certainly not get anywhere in negotiations either.
3- With the continuation of the blockade, the Strait of Hormuz will not remain open.
...
Additionally the IRGC spokesman rebuked Trump's nuclear claims:
"Any news claiming Iran will give up its uranium is a lie. We will not surrender our rights. We will not bow to pressure. We will not betray the trust of our people."
Tasnimnews, the IRGC news agency, admonished the Iranian Foreign Minister for seemingly supporting Trump's claims.
Iran will keep the Strait of Hormuz closed until the U.S. blockade of Iranian harbors is lifted:
THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS COMPLETELY OPEN AND READY FOR BUSINESS AND FULL PASSAGE, BUT THE NAVAL BLOCKADE WILL REMAIN IN FULL FORCE AND EFFECT AS IT PERTAINS TO IRAN, ONLY, UNTIL SUCH TIME AS OUR TRANSACTION WITH IRAN IS 100% COMPLETE. THIS PROCESS SHOULD GO VERY QUICKLY IN THAT MOST OF THE POINTS ARE ALREADY NEGOTIATED. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER ! PRESIDENT DONALD J.TRUMP
Trump's 'art of the deal' attempts to strong-arm Iran to give up its positions will fail ( archived):
For several hours on Friday, through a series of interviews and social-media posts, Trump insisted he got most of what he wanted from Iran after launching a war against the U.S.'s largest Middle Eastern rival: A full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, falling oil prices, a promise from Iran that it would give up its supply of enriched uranium, and commitments for Iran to halt its support for proxy terror groups in the region.
Trump's optimism had followed a social-media post by Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, declaring the Strait of Hormuz "completely open" during the cease-fire.
Then walk-backs began.
Mahmoud Nabavian, a conservative lawmaker and member of Iran's negotiating team, rebuffed Trump's announcement that the strait was fully open. He said Iran would continue charging tolls for commercial ships going through the strait. Tasnim, an Iranian media outlet aligned with the country's powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, chided Araghchi for his post.
"The Ministry of Foreign Affairs should reconsider this type of communication," Tasnim said.
The U.S. told Tehran it would give Iran access to $20 billion in frozen funds held in foreign countries as part of a deal for Iran to give up its stockpile of uranium, officials familiar with the negotiations said. But then Trump denied this proposal was on the table in an interview with CBS.
Trump at various points in the war has declared it on the cusp of being over or Iran on the verge of making a final deal, only for Tehran to dig in its heels. His bold declarations are part of his negotiating strategy, administration officials said, aimed at jolting negotiators into action and ratcheting up pressure on Iran to agree to a final deal.
But the strategy has sown confusion and doubt among close U.S. allies and some officials involved in the negotiations, who question whether Iran has really folded when the U.S. president says it has.
Several people remarked that the so called deal Trump had been waxing about was stinking. It seems that he is laying the ground for renewing the conflict.
Larry Johnson opined:
Trump is doing one of two things: 1) Spinning the American public so that he can make a deal to end the war, declare victory and head home, or 2) Or setting up a strawman by insisting a deal is at hand and then, when the US refuses Iran's demands as laid out in the 10-point plan, blame Iran for refusing to negotiate and launch new attacks on Iran by April 26. I believe, based on the continuing flow of US military aircraft into the region, that Trump is going to order new attacks on Iran before the end of April.
Professor Marandi joined in:
Seyed Mohammad Marandi @s_m_marandi - 18:13 utc · Apr 17, 2026
Personally, I believe Trump is probably saying all this nonsense about agreements with Iran so that he can later claim, "Iran didn't keep its promises" - promises Iran never made. The chances of renewed murderous aggression from Trump and Netanyahu are high.
Iran is ready.
and:
Seyed Mohammad Marandi @s_m_marandi - 22:29 utc · Apr 17, 2026
Every time Iran tries to ease tensions - like reopening the Strait of Hormuz after the Lebanon ceasefire - Netanyahu and Trump do the opposite. Trump immediately vowed to continue besieging Iranian ports, forcing Iran to reimpose restrictions.
On Monday, in Pakistan, there will another round of U.S.-Iran negotiations. The April 8 ceasefire will end on Tuesday. Then a new round of bombing will likely begin.
Reprinted with permission from Moon of Alabama.