By Larry C. Johnson
Sonar21
April 20, 2026
On Friday, April 17, 2026, President Donald Trump posted a flurry of optimistic messages on Truth Social (and referenced in interviews) framing the US-Iran war as largely over or nearing a swift resolution. His claims centered on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, progress toward a broader peace deal, and US leverage. Most of what Trump wrote was forcefully denied by Iran (see image above). Here is a summary of the various claims he made on Friday:
- The "Hormuz Strait situation is over" and Iran has agreed to never close the Strait of Hormuz again. He described it as "completely open and ready for business and full passage."
- Iran (with US help) is removing the mines it laid in the strait last month.
- Iran has agreed to nearly all (or "virtually all") of his demands, including ending its nuclear program "forever."
- The war is "very close to over" / "close to being over," and a final deal should be completed "very quickly" (possibly with talks this weekend). He said most points have already been negotiated.
- He agreed to a two-week double-sided ceasefire (suspended bombing/attacks) after requests from Pakistani leaders, conditional on Iran fully opening the strait. Despite Iran's announcement that the strait is open, the US naval blockade of Iranian ports will remain in full force until the overall transaction/deal with Iran is "100% complete."
- China's President Xi Jinping is "very happy" that the strait is open/rapidly opening. Trump claimed he is doing this "for them, also - and the World," and that this situation "will never happen again."
- China has agreed not to send weapons to Iran. Trump predicted his upcoming trip to China will be "special" and "potentially Historic," and that President Xi will give him a "big, fat, hug."
- He dismissed NATO as a "Paper Tiger" that was "useless when needed." After the strait reopened, NATO reportedly offered help, but Trump told them to stay away unless they just wanted to "load up their ships with oil."
- He emphasized that the US has already met and exceeded its military objectives. He claimed Iran now has a "new regime" that is "much less radicalized and far more intelligent" than before, making a long-term peace agreement possible. He reiterated that the U.S. will work with Iran "at a leisurely pace" on finalizing the deal.
Trump's flurry of messaging was primarily directed at manipulating the stock and oil markets. He succeeded, with the US stock market soaring while the future price of oil fell significantly. Investors foolishly believed that Trump was telling the truth. He was not... He lied.
Trump's claim that the Strait of Hormuz "situation" was over is false. Iran remains in firm control. Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz was open to commercial ships that are not tied to the US or Israel. Those ships must still seek permission to pass from the IRGC. Iran also stipulated that no military ships would be allowed into the Persian Gulf. Here's the marinetraffic.com photo as of 0020 hours eastern on 18 April. Not one US military ship in sight:
Trump also insisted that a deal with Iran regarding its enriched uranium was virtually a done deal. He claimed that the US could retrieve Iran's enriched uranium by going in "with lots of excavators," claiming Washington would "go in together with Iran" and simply take it back to the United States. Iran quickly rejected this claim with Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei stating that Iran will not transfer its enriched uranium under any circumstances.
Trump is doing one of two things: 1) Spinning the American public so that he can make a deal to end the war, declare victory and head home, or 2) Or setting up a strawman by insisting a deal is at hand and then, when the US refuses Iran's demands as laid out in the 10-point plan, blame Iran for refusing to negotiate and launch new attacks on Iran by April 26. I believe, based on the continuing flow of US military aircraft into the region, that Trump is going to order new attacks on Iran before the end of April. The Iranians are not backing down one iota from their 10-point plan... The US needs to do two things: end sanctions against Iran and unfreeze Iranian assets.
Israel remains the wild card. It appears that Trump and his administration have successfully forced Israel to holster its guns and stand down. If the ceasefire with Hezbollah holds and the US/Israel ceasefire with Iran is extended, then I think Trump is serious about finding an exit ramp. Stay tuned.
This article was originally published on Sonar21.
Larry C. Johnson is a former analyst at the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency. He is the co-owner and CEO of BERG Associates, LLC (Business Exposure Reduction Group).
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