November 10, 2026
There is currently a standoff in the Middle East where Iran and its allies on one side, and the U.S., Israel and their proxies, are involved in a situation that is neither peace nor war.
The U.S. position on the war is currently vague. According to several news reports one faction (Hegseth et al.) within the Trump administration is pushing for more war. Another (Vance et al) is urging to conclude peace negotiations. A third faction (Bessent et al.) wants to continue the current standoff with the hope that economic strangulation alone will in the end defeat Iran.
The last alternative, which might look like a winning compromise, is not a stable situation, but a reason for Iran to escalate.
Iran has continued to attack those ships in the Strait of Hormuz that do not follow the rules of its Persian Gulf Strait Authority. Tankers moving oil from the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman under darkness and U.S. protection are being attacked. Those that adhere to the rules and pass near Iran will pass unharmed.
U.S. Central Command (CentCom), the regional imperial entity, has established a blockade on Iran. It has attacked ships destined for Iranian harbors and those coming from there. It continues to wage war against Iranian forces.
Throughout the last days CentCom has escalated the situation with several measures:
- It has announced the establishment of a sub-command to blockade Iran's land borders.
- It has publicly offered $20 million for tips about Iran's nuclear program and about people involved in it
- It has attacked Iranian air defense positions on the island of Qeshm and other costal areas of Iran
The 'minor strikes' on Iranian air defenses on Qeshm, at least three over the last few days, seem designed to prepare the battlefield for further military actions. Those could be a large air raid or a ground invasion.
Iran had so far not responded to the recent attacks on Qeshm Island. It is still willing to negotiate with the U.S. If there is a sensible way to resolve the conflict there is no need to go back to war.
The continuing provocations, however, can not be allowed to happen again and again without answering them. Even if that answer means a return to a full war.
The leader of Iran, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, has advised the government of Iran to end the current unstable standoff situation:
President Massoud Pezeshkian says the Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei has ordered the Iranian officials to end the status quo of "neither war nor peace" with the United States.
"The Leader has instructed us to put an end to the current state of neither war nor peace. We can engage in dialogue with dignity and bring this matter to a dignified conclusion," the Iranian president said on Monday.
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Expressing Tehran's commitment to negotiations, Pezeshkian said, "Logic dictates that if we can secure our rights through dialogue, we should avoid becoming embroiled in war. However, we will never surrender in the face of force, intimidation, or bullying."
Fitting the leaders recommendation is the Iranian army's announcement of its new doctrine:
Iran's Armed Forces are moving toward an offensive military doctrine that will involve new combat methods, appropriate weaponry, and the ability to respond to threats without geographical restrictions, Army spokesman Brigadier General Mohammad Akraminia says.
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On October 31, Leader of the Islamic Revolution and Commander-in-Chief of Iran's Armed Forces Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei ordered senior military commanders to ensure that any level or type of enemy threat is met with an "immediate, impactful, and geographically unrestricted response."
In the context of a geographically unrestricted response Iran has officially lifted its 2,000 km missile range limit:
Amid escalating debate and domestic calls to reconsider Iran's nuclear doctrine, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) made a surprise announcement on Saturday, officially declaring that Iran had lifted its self-imposed restriction on the range of its ballistic missiles.
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The strategic significance of the decision goes back to 2017, when the then-commander-in-chief of the IRGC, Mohammad Ali Jafari, revealed that Iran's late Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, had imposed a maximum range of 2,000 kilometres on Iranian missiles.
There is no doubt that Iran has the capabilities to launch longer range missiles. It has a decent space program and has launched its own satellites. Lifting the range limit is a warning to countries in Europe that have been used as way stations for U.S. attacks on Iran.
Given the new order by the Ayatollah, I expect that the next U.S. attack on Qeshm Island will see a serious response.
This article was originally published at Moon of Alabama.